News Letter 5858-018
The 6th Year of the 4th Sabbatical Cycle
The 27th year of the 120th Jubilee Cycle
The 2nd day of the 5th month 5858 years after the creation of Adam
The 4th Sabbatical Cycle after the 119th Jubilee Cycle
The Sabbatical Cycle of Sword, Famines, and Pestilence
The 3rd year Tithe
July 2, 2022
Shabbat Shalom Royal Family of Yehovah,
Are you Keeping the Third Tithe Year?
I want to remind and ask you all, have you remembered the widows and the orphans this year thus far? We are now in the 5th month. Many of you have supported this cause and I want to thank you on their behalf. I will keep reminding you about this responsibility for the entirety of this year. But this year does not end until Aviv, 2023. So we are not yet halfway.
2022 is the 6th year of the 4th Sabbatical cycle. And anyone who has been reading our website for any time will know how to prove beyond all doubt when the Sabbatical and Jubilee years are. Once you have done that then you will know when the 3rd and the 6th year of the Sabbatical Cycles are. We are told to raise a tithe every third year for the widow, the orphan and the Levite in your gates.
Here is a very severe warning from Yehovah to each of us.
Exo 22:21 You shall neither vex a stranger nor oppress him, for you were strangers in the land of Egypt. You shall not afflict any widow or fatherless child. If you afflict them in any way, and they cry at all to Me, I will surely hear their cry. And My wrath shall become hot, and I will kill you with the sword, and your wives shall be widows, and your sons fatherless.
We have now sent out (as of June 20, 2022) our 4th round of gift offerings that you have sent in for the widows and orphans. We have also supported a couple of other ministries that aid us in doing this work. This will fulfill the Levite part of the commandment. It was our desire to get the funds to them as we are told to do in Deuteronomy.
Deu 14:28 At the end of three years you shall bring forth all the tithe of your increase the same year, and shall lay it up inside your gates.
Deu 14:29 And the Levite, because he has no part nor inheritance with you, and the stranger, and the fatherless, and the widow, who are inside your gates, shall come, and shall eat and be satisfied, so that Jehovah your God may bless you in all the work of your hand which you do.
We will soon be making another gift to them. If you do not know of anyone in the faith who is a widow or orphan then you can send it to us. Make sure you write me to let me know that those funds are for the widows and I will see to it they get it. But if you do not write me then I will not know where to apply your donation.
May each one of you who has given to this cause, be blessed as Boaz was blessed by Yehovah for his generosity. May each one of you be known for your support of the laws that will make the Kingdom of Yehovah strong and righteous. And may Yehovah bless you so that what you give is never missed and you never lack for your generosity towards Yehovah’s heart.
Shabbat Zoom Meeting
There are many people in need of fellowship and who are sitting at home on the Sabbath with no one to talk to or debate with. I want to encourage all of you to join us on Shabbat, and to invite others to come and join us as well. If the time is not convenient then you can listen to the teaching and the midrash after on our YouTube channel.
What are we doing and why do we teach this way?
We are going to discuss both sides of an issue and then let you choose. It is the work of the Ruach (Spirit) to direct and to teach you.
The medieval commentator Rashi wrote that the Hebrew word for wrestle (avek) implies that Jacob was “tied”, for the same word is used to describe knotted fringes in a Jewish prayer shawl, the tzitzityot. Rashi says, “thus is the manner of two people who struggle to overthrow each other, that one embraces the other and knots him with his arms”.
Our intellectual wrestling has been replaced by a different kind of struggle. We are Wrestling with Yehovah as we grapple with His Word. It is an intimate act, symbolizing a relationship in which Yehovah and I and you are bound together. My wrestling is a struggle to discover what Yehovah expects of us, and we are “tied” to the One who assists us in that struggle.
Today, many say Israel means “Champion of God”, or better — the “Wrestler of God”.
Our Torah sessions each Shabbat teaches you and encourages you to constantly challenge, question, argue against, as well as view alternative views and explanations of the Word. In other words, we are to “wrestle with the Word” to get to the truth. Jews worldwide believe that you need to wrestle with the Word and constantly challenge Dogma, Theology, and views or else you will never get to the Truth.
We are not like most churches where “The preacher talks and everyone listens.” We encourage everyone to participate, to question and to contribute what they know on the subject being discussed. We want you to be a champion wrestler of the Word of Yehovah. We want you to wear the title of Israel, knowing that you not only know but are capable of explaining why you know the Torah to be true with logic and facts.
We have a few rules though. Let others talk and listen. There is no discussion about UFO’s Nephilim, Vaccines or conspiracy-type subjects. We have people from around the world with different world views. Not everyone cares who is the President of any particular country. Treat each other with respect as Fellow wrestlers of the word. Some of our subjects are hard to understand and require you to be mature and if you do not know, then listen to gain knowledge and understanding and hopefully wisdom. The very things you are commanded to ask Yehovah for and He gives to those who ask.
Jas 1:5 But if any of you lacks wisdom, let him ask of God, who gives to all liberally and with no reproach, and it shall be given to him.
We hope you can invite those who want to keep Torah to come and join us by hitting the link below. It is almost like a Torah teaching fellowship talk show with people from around the world taking part and sharing their insights and understandings.
We start off with some music and then some prayers and it’s as though you were sitting around the kitchen back in Newfoundland having a cup of coffee and all of us enjoying each other’s company. I hope you will grace us with your company someday.
Sabbath services begin at 12:30 PM EDT where we will be doing prayers songs and teaching from this hour.
Shabbat Services will begin at about 1:15 pm Eastern.
We look forward to you joining our family and getting to know us as we get to know you.
Joseph Dumond is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.
Topic: Joseph Dumond’s Personal Meeting Room
Join Zoom Meeting
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Septennial Torah Portion
If you go to Torah Portion at our archived section, you can then go to the 6th year which is the 6th year of the Sabbatical Cycle, the one we are in now, as we state at the top of every News Letter. There you can scroll down to July 2, 2022, and see that this Shabbat we could very well be midrashing about:
If you missed last week’s exciting discoveries as we studied that section you can go and watch past Shabbats on our media section.
New Moon of the 5th Month
On Wednesday, June 29, 2022, the moon was NOT seen in Israel on the 29th day of the 4th month. This means that whether or not anyone sees the moon on June 30 after sunset, because there are only 30 days in a month and never 31 like the Gregorian calendar. This means that on Friday, July 1, 2022, beginning after sunset, the evening before is the first day of the 5th month.
You can keep track of the days of the month by downloading the monthly calendar and printing it off from sightedmoon.com. Just click on the blue lettering in the sentence above.
Why do we do this?
We are told to number our days as I showed you in the last two Newsletters.
Psa 90:12 So teach us to number our days, so that we may bring a heart of wisdom.
Last week we showed you how Moses had come down from Mount Sinai and found Israel worshipping the Golden Calf.
That was in the year they arrived at Mount Sinai and it was the year 1379 BC.
Read what happened just one later in the year 1378 BC.
Num 10:11 And on the twentieth of the second month, in the second year, the cloud was taken up from the tabernacle of the testimony.
Num 10:12 And the sons of Israel pulled up stakes in their journeyings out of the wilderness of Sinai. And the cloud rested in the wilderness of Paran.
Now lets us follow the chronology of Israel from the 20th day of the 2nd month.
Num 10:33 And they moved three days’ journey from the mountain of Jehovah. And the ark of the covenant of Jehovah went before them in the three days’ journey, to look for a resting-place for them.
Num 10:34 And the cloud of Jehovah was upon them by day, when they pulled up stakes out of the camp.
Num 10:35 And it happened when the ark pulled up, Moses said, Rise up, Jehovah, and let Your enemies be scattered, and let those who hate You flee before You.
Num 10:36 And when it rested, he said, Return, O Jehovah, to the many thousands of Israel.
This is now the 23 day of the 2nd month in the year 1378 BC.
Num 11:18 And say to the people, Sanctify yourselves for tomorrow, and you shall eat flesh. For you have wept in the ears of the Lord, saying, Who shall give us flesh to eat, for it was well with us in Egypt? Therefore Jehovah will give you flesh, and you shall eat.
Num 11:19 You shall not eat one day, nor two days, nor five days, nor ten days, nor twenty days.
Num 11:20 Even a whole month, until it comes out at your nostrils, and it is hateful to you, because you have despised Jehovah among you, and have wept before Him, saying, Why did we come out of Egypt?
This would now be the time they are at this place for 30 days. This now brings you to the 23rd day of the 3rd month. during this time the great plague came upon them.
Num 11:33 And while the flesh was yet between their teeth, before it was chewed, the wrath of Jehovah was kindled against the people, and Jehovah struck the people with a very great plague.
Num 11:34 And he called the name of that place Graves of Lust, because there they buried the people that lusted.
Num 11:35 And the people pulled up stakes from the Graves of Lust to Hazeroth, and stayed at Hazeroth.
In Chapter 12 we read about the event with Mariam.
Num 12:1 And Miriam and Aaron spoke against Moses because of the Cushite woman whom he had taken. For he had taken a Cushite woman.
Num 12:2 And they said, Has Jehovah indeed spoken only by Moses? Has He not also spoken by us? And Jehovah heard.
Num 12:3 (Now the man Moses was very meek, more than all the men on the face of the earth.)
Num 12:4 And Jehovah spoke suddenly to Moses and to Aaron and to Miriam, You three come out to the tabernacle of the congregation. And the three came out.
Num 12:5 And Jehovah came down in the pillar of the cloud and stood in the door of the tabernacle, and called Aaron and Miriam. And they both came forth.
Num 12:6 And He said, Hear now My words. If there is a prophet among you, I Jehovah will make Myself known to him in a vision, and will speak to him in a dream.
Num 12:7 Not so, My servant Moses. He is faithful in all My house.
Num 12:8 I will speak with him mouth to mouth, even clearly, and not in dark speeches. And he shall behold the likeness of Jehovah. Why then were you not afraid to speak against My servant Moses?
Num 12:9 And the anger of Jehovah was kindled against them, and He moved.
Num 12:10 And the cloud moved from the tabernacle. And behold! Miriam became leprous, as snow. And Aaron looked on Miriam, and behold, she was leprous.
Num 12:11 And Aaron said to Moses, Oh, my lord, I beg you, do not lay upon us the sin in which we have done foolishly, and in which we have sinned.
Num 12:12 Let her not be like one dead, of whom the flesh is half gone when he comes out of his mother’s womb.
Num 12:13 And Moses cried to Jehovah saying, Heal her now, O God, I beseech You.
Num 12:14 And Jehovah said to Moses, If her father had but spit in her face, should she not be ashamed seven days? Let her be shut out from the camp seven days, and after that let her be received.
Num 12:15 And Miriam was shut out from the camp seven days. And the people did not pull up stakes until Miriam was brought in.
Now we add these 7 days to the 23rd day of the 3rd month and this brings us to the 30th day of the 3rd month or the 1st day of the 4th month depending on if the moon was sighted or not. When I check Torah Calendar they show this third month in 1338 BC to be 30 days in length.
This then brings us to Numbers 13.
Num 13:1 And Jehovah spoke to Moses saying,
Num 13:2 Send men so that they may search the land of Canaan, which I give to the sons of Israel. You shall send a man from every tribe of their fathers, everyone a ruler among them.
Num 13:3 And Moses by the command of Jehovah sent them from the wilderness of Paran. All those men were heads of the sons of Israel.
We are then told how long the men were in the land searching.
Num 13:25 And they returned from spying out the land after forty days.
Num 13:26 And they left and came to Moses and to Aaron, and to all the congregation of the sons of Israel, to the wilderness of Paran, to Kadesh. And they brought back word to them and to all the congregation, and showed them the fruit of the land.
So when we take the 30th day of the 3rd month and add on 40 days we arrive at the 10th day of the 5th month also notoriously known as the 9th of Av.
As we reported in last week’s Newsletter, we showed all those evil things that have happened on this day which now is a day of fasting as people recall what happed with the destruction of the two Temples on this date.
Num 13:27 And they told him and said, We came to the land where you sent us, and surely it flows with milk and honey. And this is the fruit of it.
Num 13:28 However, the people that dwell in the land are strong, and the cities are walled, very great. And also we saw the children of Anak there.
Num 13:29 The Amalekites dwell in the land of the south, and the Hittites, and the Jebusites, and the Amorites dwell in the mountains. And the Canaanites dwell by the sea and by the coast of Jordan.
Num 13:30 And Caleb stilled the people before Moses and said, Let us go up at once and possess it. For we are well able to overcome it.
Num 13:31 But the men that went up with him said, We are not able to go up against the people, for they are stronger than we.
Num 13:32 And they brought up an evil report of the land which they had searched to the sons of Israel, saying, The land through which we have gone to search it, is a land that eats up those who live in it. And all the people whom we saw in it were men of stature.
Num 13:33 And there we saw the giants, the sons of Anak, of the giants. And we were in our own sight like grasshoppers, and so we were in their sight.
Because of the evil report of the 10 spies, Yehovah cursed Israel to wander in the wilderness for 40 years. That curse did NOT start on the 9th of Av. That curse began on the 1st of Aviv or the 1st day of the 1st month the following year in 1377 BC.
Num 14:1 And all the congregation lifted up their voice and cried. And the people wept that night.
Num 14:2 And all the sons of Israel murmured against Moses and against Aaron. And the whole congregation said to them, Oh that we had died in the land of Egypt! Or, Oh that we had died in the wilderness!
Num 14:3 And why has Jehovah brought us into this land to fall by the sword, so that our wives and our sons should be a prey? Would it not be better for us to return to Egypt?
Num 14:4 And they said to one another, Let us make a leader, and let us return to Egypt.
Num 14:5 And Moses and Aaron fell on their faces before all the assembly of the congregation of the sons of Israel.
Num 14:6 And Joshua the son of Nun, and Caleb the son of Jephunneh, of those that searched the land, tore their clothes.
Num 14:7 And they spoke to all the company of the sons of Israel saying, The land which we passed through to search is an exceedingly good land.
Num 14:8 If Jehovah delights in us, then He will bring us into this land and give it to us, a land which flows with milk and honey.
Num 14:9 Only do not rebel against Jehovah, neither fear the people of the land. For they are bread for us. Their protection has moved from them, and Jehovah is with us. Do not fear them.
Num 14:10 But all the congregation said to stone them with stones. And the glory of Jehovah appeared in the tabernacle of the congregation before all the sons of Israel.
Num 14:11 And Jehovah said to Moses, How long will this people provoke Me? And how long will it be before they believe Me, for all the signs which I have shown among them?
Num 14:12 I will strike them with the pestilence and will disinherit them, and will make of you a greater nation and mightier than they.
Moses Intercedes for the People
Num 14:13 And Moses said to Jehovah, Then the Egyptians will hear, for You have brought up this people in Your might from among them.
Num 14:14 And they will say to the inhabitant of this land, They have heard that You, Jehovah, are among this people, who is seen eye to eye. You are Jehovah, and Your cloud stands over them, and You go before them in a pillar of cloud by day, and in a pillar of fire by night.
Num 14:15 And will You kill this people as one man? Then the nations who have heard Your fame will speak, saying,
Num 14:16 Because Jehovah was not able to bring this people into the land which He swore to them, therefore He has slain them in the wilderness.
Num 14:17 And now, I beseech You, let the power of my Lord be great, according as You have spoken, saying,
Num 14:18 Jehovah is long-suffering, and of great mercy, forgiving iniquity and transgression, and by no means clearing the guilty, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the sons to the third and fourth generation.
Num 14:19 I beseech You, pardon the iniquity of this people according to the greatness of Your mercy, and as You have forgiven this people from Egypt even until now.
God Promises Judgment
Num 14:20 And Jehovah said, I have pardoned according to your word.
Num 14:21 But truly, as I live, all the earth shall be filled with the glory of Jehovah.
Num 14:22 Because all those men who have seen My glory and My miracles which I did in Egypt and in the wilderness, and have tempted Me now these ten times, and have not listened to My voice,
Num 14:23 surely they shall not see the land which I swore to their fathers, neither shall any of them that provoked Me see it.
Num 14:24 But My servant Caleb, because he had another spirit with him, and has followed Me fully, I will bring him into the land into which he went. And his seed shall possess it.
Num 14:25 (Now the Amalekites and the Canaanites lived in the valley.) Tomorrow turn and go into the wilderness by the way of the Red Sea.
Num 14:26 And Jehovah spoke to Moses and to Aaron, saying,
Num 14:27 How long shall I bear with this evil congregation, which murmurs against Me? I have heard the murmurings of the sons of Israel which they murmur against Me.
Num 14:28 Say to them, As I live, says Jehovah, as you have spoken in My ears, so I will do to you.
Num 14:29 Your dead bodies shall fall in this wilderness, and all that were numbered of you, according to your whole number, from twenty years old and upward, who have murmured against Me,
Num 14:30 you shall certainly not come into the land which I swore to make you live in, except Caleb the son of Jephunneh, and Joshua the son of Nun.
Num 14:31 But your little ones, which you said should be a prey, I will bring them in and they shall know the land which you have despised.
Num 14:32 But as for you, your bodies shall fall in this wilderness.
Num 14:33 And your sons shall feed in the wilderness forty years and bear your fornications, until your dead bodies have wasted in the wilderness.
Num 14:34 According to the number of the days in which you searched the land, forty days, each day for a year you shall bear your iniquities, forty years; and you shall know My alienation.
Num 14:35 I Jehovah have spoken; I will surely do it to all this evil congregation who are gathered together against Me. They shall be destroyed in this wilderness, and there they shall die.
Num 14:36 And the men whom Moses sent to spy out the land, who returned and made all the congregation to murmur against him, by bringing up an evil report upon the land,
Num 14:37 even those men that brought up the evil report upon the land died by the plague before Jehovah.
Num 14:38 But Joshua the son of Nun, and Caleb the son of Jephunneh, of the men that went to spy out the land, lived.
I have shared this story with you as it happened at this time of the year. But my purpose for this teaching has nothing to do with what we have just covered.
We have skipped over the most important part of this narrative. It is most important because it helps you to understand the calendar debate more fully, which is and has been going on since at least 2016 when we moved away from following the Karaites who had changed the rules from needing a handful of Barley to begin the year to needing fields and field of ripe barley at the end of the 12th month, to begin the year.
In 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 we have been one month earlier than our brethren using the Karaite calendar which is the same as us using the barley to begin the year and the crescent moon to begin the month.
In each of those years, we had the wheat, the very first wheat ripe the week before we kept Shavuot in each of those years. We are commanded to bring the very first fruits of our harvest and wave them before Yehovah.
Then we learned something or came to understand that the next witness would be the grapes. From the scriptures, we learn that in the 5th month the first of the grapes should be ready.
In this 5th month, when the spies returned after their 40 days,–-you yourself have just completed the math and added up the time from when they left on the 20th day of the 2nd month, and the day the spies returned and arrived on the 10th day of the 5th month–read what they brought back.
Num 13:21 So they went up and searched the land from the wilderness of Zin to Rehob, as men come to Hamath.
Num 13:22 And they went up by the south and came to Hebron, where Ahiman, Sheshai, and Talmai, the sons of Anak were. (Now Hebron was built seven years before Zoan in Egypt.)
Num 13:23 And they came to the valley of Eshcol and cut from there a branch with one cluster of grapes. And they carried it between two men upon a staff, and some of the pomegranates and of the figs.
Num 13:24 The place was called the valley of Eshcol because of the cluster of grapes which the sons of Israel cut down from there.
Israel brought back with them on this 10th day of the 5th month one huge cluster of grapes that two men had to carry between them.
This week we received word from Becca that the Grapes are indeed ripe and being harvested. Read what she was told in their own words by two people who were already harvesting the grapes.
The grapes are ready to begin harvest. A first quanity is ready and perfectly ripe. Samantha wrote to me:
Red ones are ready and delicious. Green still a bit tart
Blessed are you Adonai our Elohim, King of the Universe, Creator of the fruit of the vine. You, Eternal One, are forever faithful to those who love You
Then others wrote is to say:
We’ve been harvesting green ones in the southern golan, super sweet and great
From Oded Borowski, Agriculture in Iron Age Israel, 1987, we can learn when all the various crops were harvested in Israel and the months.
Now let’s look at the major crops after Pentecost. Grapes were the first major crop to ripen: “In a good year, when the [grain] yield was great, threshing and grape picking overlapped” (page 62). That would be in June, technically in spring, since summer doesn’t officially start until the solstice, June 22.
The importance of grapes and olives is illustrated by the fact that the Essenes had wine and oil firstfruits festivals similar to the biblical firstfruits offering for grain. These festivals also indicate the relative timing of these crops. The new wine festival came 50 days or seven weeks after Pentecost. Until new wine was offered, no one could drink any of the new juice (Temple Scroll, columns 19-21). Fourteen weeks after Pentecost, shortly before the Feast of Trumpets, was the new olive oil festival. No one could use new olives until some oil had been offered (columns 21-22).
The grape harvest was usually completed before Tabernacles, but most of the olive harvest came after the autumn festivals. In ancient Israel the primary harvest season extended from April to November. This harvest period might be subdivided into three seasons and three major crops: the spring grain harvest, the summer grape harvest and the autumn olive harvest. These harvests have a general correspondence with the festivals. Some grain might be harvested after Pentecost, threshing and grape-picking might overlap, and the olive harvest came both before and after the Festival of Tabernacles.
We are now in the 5th month. We now have our third witness that we have the months in the proper place according to Yehovah and His first Fruits season. This then means we are keeping the HOLY DAYS AT THE PROPER TIME ACCORDING TO YEHOVAH!!!
Not according to Joseph Dumond or any other person. But according to Yehovah.
We did not go by the equinox. We never have. We no longer go by the Hillel Calendar. That was OK as we first learned, but now we are mature. We want to and can be more precise. You can too. All you have to do is study this subject and we have many articles in our archives section.
We also have another harvesting scripture for you to understand. When you do then this 5th month becomes prophetic and a warning to you.
Rev 14:14 And I looked, and behold, a white cloud. And on the cloud sat one like the Son of man, having a golden crown on His head, and a sharp sickle in His hand.
Rev 14:15 And another angel came out of the temple, crying in a great voice to Him sitting on the cloud, Thrust in Your sickle and reap, for the time has come for You to reap, for the harvest of the earth was dried.
Rev 14:16 And He sitting on the cloud thrust in His sickle on the earth, and the earth was reaped.
Rev 14:17 And another angel came out of the temple in Heaven, also having a sharp sickle.
Rev 14:18 And another angel came out from the altar, who had authority over fire. And he spoke with a great cry to him who had the sharp sickle, saying, Thrust in your sharp sickle, and gather the clusters of the vine of the earth, for her grapes are fully ripe.
Rev 14:19 And the angel thrust in his sickle into the earth and gathered the vine of the earth, and cast it into the great winepress of the anger of God.
Rev 14:20 And the winepress was trodden outside the city, and blood came out of the winepress, even to the bridles of the horses, for the space of a thousand, six hundred stadia.
Notice it says blood comes out of the wine press, not grape juice. This then should lead you to understand something else. Where is outside the city and then you can connect this to the altar which also has wine poured over it and it also has the blood splashed on the sides of the altar.
We are going to cover this in great detail in the second book we have just written and it is being edited. So I will save the rest of this prophecy for then. But this prophetic event will take place in the 5th month. The 9th of Av???? I do not know, but I would suspect maybe yes.
Do you understand who this first harvest is speaking about?
Rev 14:15 And another angel came out of the temple, crying in a great voice to Him sitting on the cloud, Thrust in Your sickle and reap, for the time has come for You to reap, for the harvest of the earth was dried.
In the year 2033, the wheat will be harvested. You are the wheat. But amongst us are the tares and they pretend to be wheat, but they have no fruits. The wheat harvest comes when the wheat is dried out.
Mat 13:24 He put out another parable to them, saying, The kingdom of heaven is compared to a man who sowed good seed in his field.
Mat 13:25 But while men slept, his enemy came and sowed darnel among the wheat and went his way.
Mat 13:26 But when the blade had sprung up and had produced fruit, then the darnel also appeared.
Mat 13:27 So the servants of the householder came and said to him, Sir, did you not sow good seed in your field? Then where have the darnel come from?
Mat 13:28 He said to them, An enemy has done this. The servants said to him, Then do you want us to go and gather them up?
Mat 13:29 But he said, No, lest while you gather up the darnel you also root up the wheat with them.
Mat 13:30 Let both grow together until the harvest. And in the time of harvest I will say to the reapers, First gather together the darnel and bind them in bundles to burn them, but gather the wheat into my granary.
The second angel is the one harvesting the grapes of wrath. This is Babylon.
Joe 2:1 Blow a ram’s horn in Zion, and sound an alarm in My holy mountain; let all the inhabitants of the land tremble. For the day of Jehovah comes, for it is near at hand;
Joe 2:2 a day of darkness and of gloominess, a day of clouds and of thick darkness, as the morning spread on the mountains; a great people and a strong people; there has not been ever the like, nor shall there ever be again, even to the years of many generations.
Joe 2:3 A fire devours before them, and behind them a flame burns. The land is as the garden of Eden before them, and behind them a desolate wilderness. Yes, and nothing shall escape them.
Joe 2:4 As the appearance of horses is its appearance; and as war horses, so they run.
Joe 2:5 They shall leap like the noise of chariots on the tops of mountains, like the noise of a flame of fire that devours the stubble, like a strong people set in battle order.
Joe 2:6 Before their face the people shall be much pained; all faces shall gather blackness.
Joe 2:7 They shall run like mighty ones. They shall climb the wall like men of war, and they shall march each one on his way, and they shall not break their ranks.
Joe 2:8 And each one shall not press his brother; they each go in his paths. And if they fall behind their weapons, they shall not be cut off.
Joe 2:9 They shall rush on the city; they shall run on the wall; they shall climb up on the houses; they shall enter in at the windows like a thief.
Joe 2:10 The earth shall tremble before them; the heavens shall shake. The sun and the moon shall grow dark, and the stars shall gather in their light.
Joe 2:11 And Jehovah shall utter His voice before His army; for His camp is very great; for strong is He who does His Word. For the day of Jehovah is great and very terrible; and who can stand it?
Return to the Lord
Joe 2:12 Yet even now, says Jehovah, turn to Me with all your heart, and with fasting, and with weeping, and with mourning.
Joe 2:13 Yes, tear your heart and not your robes, and turn to Jehovah your God: for He is gracious and merciful, slow to anger, and of great kindness, and He pities because of the evil.
Joe 2:14 Who knows if He will turn and have pity and leave a blessing behind Him, a food offering and a drink offering to Jehovah your God?
Joe 2:15 Blow a trumpet in Zion, sanctify a fast, call a solemn gathering.
Joe 2:16 Gather the people, sanctify the congregation, gather the elders, gather the children and those who suck the breasts. Let the bridegroom go forth out of his chamber, and the bride out of her room.
Joe 2:17 Let the priests, the ministers of Jehovah, weep between the porch and the altar, and let them say, Have pity on Your people, O Jehovah, and give not Your inheritance to shame, for a proverb among those of the nations. Why should they say among the people, Where is their God?
The Lord Had Pity
Joe 2:18 Then Jehovah will be jealous for His land and pity His people.
Joe 2:19 Yes, Jehovah will answer and say to His people, Behold, I will send you grain, and wine, and oil, and you shall be satisfied with it. And I will no more make you a curse among the nations.
Joe 2:20 But I will remove the northern army far from you, and will drive him into a barren and deserted land, with his face toward the eastern sea and his rear toward the western sea. And his stench shall come up, and his ill odor shall come up, because he was doing great things.
Joe 2:21 Fear not, O land; be glad and rejoice. For Jehovah will do great things.
Joe 2:22 Do not be afraid, beasts of the field; for the pastures of the wilderness grow green; for the tree bears its fruit, and the fig tree and the vine yield their strength.
Joe 2:23 Be glad then, sons of Zion, and rejoice in Jehovah your God. For He has given you the former rain according to righteousness, and He will cause the rain to come down for you, the former rain and the latter rain in the first month.
Joe 2:24 And the floors shall be full of wheat, and the vats shall overflow with wine and oil.
Joe 2:25 And I will restore to you the years which the swarming locust has eaten, the locust larvae, and the stripping locust, and the cutting locust, My great army which I sent among you.
Joe 2:26 And you shall eat in plenty, and be satisfied, and praise the name of Jehovah your God, who has dealt with you wonderfully; and My people shall never be ashamed.
Joe 2:27 And you shall know that I am in the midst of Israel, and that I am Jehovah your God, and no one else; and My people shall never be ashamed.
The Lord Will Pour Out His Spirit
Joe 2:28 And it shall be afterward, I will pour out My Spirit on all flesh. And your sons and your daughters shall prophesy; your old men shall dream dreams; your young men shall see visions.
Joe 2:29 And also I will pour out My Spirit on the slaves and on the slave women in those days.
Joe 2:30 And I will show wonders in the heavens, and in the earth, blood and fire and pillars of smoke.
Joe 2:31 The sun shall be turned into darkness, and the moon into blood, before the coming of the great and awesome day of Jehovah.
Joe 2:32 And it shall be, whoever shall call on the name of Jehovah shall be saved; for salvation shall be in Mount Zion and in Jerusalem, as Jehovah has said, and in the remnant whom Jehovah shall call.
Are you that remnant who Yehovah has called to keep His Holy Days at the proper time and to be saved from what is about to come?
My Fast And The Resulting Meeting
Friday last week, I began a fast. As of this Shabbat, I am now on my 9th day. Along with my fast, I was praying to Yehovah for clarity and understanding.
Certain things had recently happened and I was wondering if I or this work were heading in the right or wrong direction. I was also asking for support for this work to continue to go forward and do the many things we are striving to do.
At the same time, I am frustrated with Yehovah. He has given us this message about the Jubilee Cycles and shown us the timing of these end-time prophecies and yet as hard as we try we cannot get on any major religious broadcast, whether Christian or Messianic.
And yet this message in Amos rings in my ears all the time.
Amo 3:6 If a ram’s horn is blown in a city, will the people not also tremble? If there is a calamity in a city, has Jehovah not also done it?
Amo 3:7 For the Lord Jehovah will do nothing unless He reveals His secret to His servants the prophets.
Amo 3:8 The lion has roared; who will not fear? The Lord Jehovah has spoken; who will not prophesy?
We have learned many things from understanding the Sabbatical and Jubilee Cycles. As many of you know this is not something you can learn overnight. It takes time to study this and check it and prove it for yourself. It takes time to read the books explaining it. And then you have to also understand the meanings of each Holy Day in order to grasp where they fit in the Jubilee Cycle and….and you have to know we are both in the 120th Jubilee Cycle as well as the 70th Jubilee Cycle for Israel. All of this Yehovah has shown us and many of you now understand our urgency.
So I am asking for a megaphone by which we can let the world know. Some Christian prophecy shows or religious radio show interviews.
After Sabbath June 25, 2022, I see a post by Kenny Russell and it showed where he was. I was shocked as I was also in that very same place. In fact just 1 km away. I thought he was only there for a day and I did not expect to meet him on Sunday when I walked down there. But he was still there and was going to be here until Thursday before heading to the Ottawa area.
Kenny heads up Bull Dozer Faith.
He has been told about me since about 2016 and has read the first half of our book The 2300 Days of Hell. I have tried to do a few barley searches with him in years past but it never worked out. Randy and I were going to pay him a visit on our way out of Israel this spring but I was denied entry due to COVID and had to stay in Jordan.
We have been able to get to know each other a bit over this week and then I began to think about the prayers that I had made and the chain of events up until this day. Kenny was here on a prayer evangelism ministry tour, setting up prayer groups in parks across the entirety of North America.
He said the Holy Spirit told him to leave Tennessee and come to Canada on Friday. The same day I began my fast and prayer session. He then ends up in my backyard.
What is this all about?
We have been talking and he is praying for people and meeting people and baptizing some here in the river. It has been very nice.
But is he the answer to my prayer and fasting? Time will tell.
It is now Thursday and Kenny is leaving in the AM to drive to Arnprior which is about a 7 or more hour drive.
This week he has been asking people in the park if they wanted him to pray for them. Some of those he asked cried yes. Some said no and took his envelope and went to read it and there they began to cry. Kenny approached them and ask if they want him to pray for them now. Some said yes and others no.
Many brethren in the community began to come by and supported him. When he set up on Shabbat the first day, he had a group of witches come and try to curse him by casting spells on him. He just laughed them away.
He told me he picked the name so that through faith, we could move mountains and his new mission is to do just that by raising up an army of brethren who will pray against the strongholds against us.
As we talked I had to laugh. I said, Kenny, you know those dozers need an operator and I am an operator in the Union and was laid off when COVID started.
On Thursday Kenny anointed a man and his wife to the position of pastor to continue doing this work here and the rest of the people were praying to support them. All in all, a very interesting and different experience for me as I watch all of this unfold this week. Yes, I was there talking to people as well for a short time.
As the brethren left on Thursday I too was about to go and I had that twinge in my shoulder that has been killing me. I can hardly use it some days. And at night it keeps me awake with the sharp pains.
Kenny has been praying for all these other people, why not ask? I have asked Yehovah to heel me but He has chosen not to do so. So I asked Kenny to pray over my shoulder.
He did. No oil, no big long ramblings.
As he prayed I could feel the heat from his hands going into my shoulder and said to myself this is strange. When he was done we talked for a few minutes and hug and said goodbye. We may have become friends. That would be nice.
I went to the door and bent over to put on my shoes. Hmmm, no pain in my shoulder. I could move it up over my head. Really, I could hardly move it before I came. WOW. I had full function of my should. I went back to Kenny who was talking to others and showed him my shoulder and how I could move it around. And I thanked him.
It was Yehovah who fixed my shoulder through Kenny Russell. Everyone who is obeying Yehovah, He hears their prayers.
Please join me in praying for our brother as he goes from place to place praying for those who are in need of hope.
The World and Prophecy
A few weeks ago we did an interview with Cyrus Harding and Mark Webb. You can watch this interview here if you have not yet done so.
I hope you will be able to join us again as Mark has discovered more information about the years and dates I have been asking about in relation to when the Abomination is potentially going to be set up. And I teased you with this image Mark sent me.
We have an online meeting set up for July 6 at 1 PM Eastern. Subscribe to my YouTube channel in order to get the interview.
The Perfect Storm is Forming-Get Ready
I have just way too much information this week. Here are the things Cyrus sent. But before you read them and the things I have enclosed read this section once again and tell me you do not see almost all of this on the nightly news now!
Cyrus also said that this New Moon was the start of the crazy cycle which he said was off the charts. As you go through all the reports below keep that in mind. The perfect storm is shaping up for this crazy cycle and the things Yehovah has put in place.
Lev 26:14 But if you will not listen to Me, and will not do all these commandments,
Lev 26:15 and if you shall despise My statutes, or if your soul hates My judgments, so that you will not do all My commandments, so that you break My covenant;
Lev 26:16 I will also do this to you: I will even appoint terror over you, consumption, and burning fever, consuming the eyes and causing sorrow of heart. And you shall sow your seed in vain, for your enemies shall eat it.
Lev 26:17 And I will set My face against you, and you shall be slain before your enemies. They that hate you shall reign over you. And you shall flee when none pursues you.
Lev 26:18 And if you will not yet listen to Me for all this, then I will punish you seven times more for your sins.
Lev 26:19 And I will break the pride of your power, and I will make your heaven like iron and your earth like bronze.
Lev 26:20 And your strength shall be spent in vain. For your land shall not yield its increase, neither shall the trees of the field yield their fruits.
Lev 26:21 And if you walk contrary to Me, and will not listen to Me, I will bring seven times more plagues on you according to your sins.
Lev 26:22 I will also send wild beasts among you, who shall bereave you. And I will destroy your cattle, and make you few. And your highways shall be deserted.
Lev 26:23 And if you will not be reformed by Me by these things, but will still walk contrary to Me,
Lev 26:24 then I will walk contrary to you and will punish you seven times more for your sins.
Lev 26:25 And I will bring a sword on you that shall execute the vengeance of the covenant. And when you are gathered inside your cities, I will send the plague among you. And you shall be delivered into the hand of the enemy.
Lev 26:26 When I have broken the staff of your bread, ten women shall bake your bread in one oven, and they shall deliver you your bread again by weight. And you shall eat and not be satisfied.
Lev 26:27 And if you will not for all of this listen to Me, but will walk contrary to Me,
Lev 26:28 then I will walk contrary to you also in fury. And I, even I, will chastise you seven times for your sins.
Lev 26:29 And you shall eat the flesh of your sons, and the flesh of your daughters you shall eat.
Lev 26:30 And I will destroy your high places and cut down your images, and throw your carcasses on the carcasses of your idols, and My soul shall despise you.
Lev 26:31 And I will make your cities waste and cause your sanctuaries to be deserted. And I will not smell the savor of your sweet odors.
Lev 26:32 And I will turn the land into wasteland. And your enemies who dwell in it shall be astonished at it.
Lev 26:33 And I will scatter you among the nations, and will draw out a sword after you. And your land shall be waste, and your cities waste.
Lev 26:34 Then shall the land enjoy its sabbaths, as long as it lies waste, and you are in your enemies’ land; then shall the land rest and enjoy its sabbaths.
Lev 26:35 As long as it lies waste it shall rest, because it did not rest in your sabbaths when you lived on it.
Lev 26:36 And on those of you that are left I will send a faintness into their hearts in the lands of their enemies. And the sound of a driven leaf shall chase them, and they shall flee as if fleeing from a sword. And they shall fall when none pursues.
Lev 26:37 And they shall fall on one another, as if it were before a sword, when none pursues. And you shall have no power to stand before your enemies.
Lev 26:38 And you shall perish among the nations, and the land of your enemies shall eat you up.
Lev 26:39 And they that are left of you shall putrefy in their iniquity in the lands of your enemies. And also they shall putrefy with them in the iniquities of their fathers.
After our last interview, Cyrus began to discover many things on the news about what he was warning us about. I too have found the same things and will share them here now as well.
Here is what Cyrus sent me.
I just came across this article. I know that it sounds like I wrote it but I promise, I did not. The person who wrote it has a Slavic sounding last name and read his profile and see where he has fought. He is saying the exact same thing that I said in our last meeting together: the United States cannot produce ammunition fast enough to engage in a major war, protracted or not. We have officially entered the gap, that 2 to 4 year period of time in which we will not have sufficient weapons to fight a war. When would you attack? According to this report it is much worse than I stated in our last interview because we cannot produce even conventional ammunition fast enough to refill our present depleted stocks. Please prepare mentally, physically and spiritually and prepare your qahals as well because no place in North America will be safe when this takes place.
His first abbreviated article is as follows:
Can the West still provide the arsenal of democracy?
The war in Ukraine has proven that the age of industrial warfare is still here. The massive consumption of equipment, vehicles and ammunition requires a large-scale industrial base for resupply – quantity still has a quality of its own. The mass scale combat has pitted 250,000 Ukrainian soldiers, together with 450,000 recently mobilized citizen soldiers against about 200,000 Russian and separatist troops. The effort to arm, feed and supply these armies is a monumental task. Ammunition resupply is particularly onerous. For Ukraine, compounding this task are Russian deep fires capabilities, which target Ukrainian military industry and transportation networks throughout the depth of the country. The Russian army has also suffered from Ukrainian cross-border attacks and acts of sabotage, but at a smaller scale. The rate of ammunition and equipment consumption in Ukraine can only be sustained by a large-scale industrial base.
This reality should be a concrete warning to Western countries, who have scaled down military industrial capacity and sacrificed scale and effectiveness for efficiency. This strategy relies on flawed assumptions about the future of war, and has been influenced by both the bureaucratic culture in Western governments and the legacy of low-intensity conflicts. Currently, the West may not have the industrial capacity to fight a large-scale war. If the US government is planning to once again become the arsenal of democracy, then the existing capabilities of the US military-industrial base and the core assumptions that have driven its development need to be re-examined.
The Capacity of the West’s Industrial Base
The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base. A country must either have the manufacturing capacity to build massive quantities of ammunition or have other manufacturing industries that can be rapidly converted to ammunition production. Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.
Presently, the US is decreasing its artillery ammunition stockpiles. In 2020, artillery ammunition purchases decreased by 36% to $425 million. In 2022, the plan is to reduce expenditure on 155mm artillery rounds to $174 million. This is equivalent to 75,357 M795 basic ‘dumb’ rounds for regular artillery, 1,400 XM1113 rounds for the M777, and 1,046 XM1113 rounds for Extended Round Artillery Cannons. Finally, there are $75 million dedicated for Excalibur precision-guided munitions that costs $176K per round, thus totaling 426 rounds. In short, US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine. If the initial estimate of Russian shells fired is over by 50%, it would only extend the artillery supplied for three weeks.
The US is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving US, UK and French forces, UK forces exhausted national stockpiles of critical ammunition after eight days.
Unfortunately, this is not only the case with artillery. Anti-tank Javelins and air-defense Stingers are in the same boat. The US shipped 7,000 Javelin missiles to Ukraine – roughly one-third of its stockpile – with more shipments to come. Lockheed Martin produces about 2,100 missiles a year, though this number might ramp up to 4,000 in a few years. Ukraine claims to use 500 Javelin missiles every day.
The expenditure of cruise missiles and theatre ballistic missiles is just as massive. The Russians have fired between 1,100 and 2,100 missiles. The US currently purchases 110 PRISM, 500 JASSM and 60 Tomahawk cruise missiles annually, meaning that in three months of combat, Russia has burned through four times the US annual missile production. The Russian rate of production can only be estimated. Russia started missile production in 2015 in limited initial runs, and even in 2016 the production runs were estimated at 47 missiles. This means that it had only five to six years of full-scale production.
The initial stockpile in February 2022 is unknown, but considering expenditures and the requirement to hold substantial stockpiles back in case of war with NATO, it is unlikely that the Russians are worried. In fact, they seem to have enough to expend operational-level cruise missiles on tactical targets. The assumption that there are 4,000 cruise and ballistic missiles in the Russian inventory is not unreasonable. This production will probably increase despite Western sanctions. In April, ODK Saturn, which makes Kalibr missile motors, announced an additional 500 job openings. This suggests that even in this field, the West only has parity with Russia.
The first key assumption about future of combat is that precision-guided weapons will reduce overall ammunition consumption by requiring only one round to destroy the target. The war in Ukraine is challenging this assumption. Many ‘dumb’ indirect fire systems are achieving a great deal of precision without precision guidance, and still the overall ammunition consumption is massive. Part of the issue is that the digitization of global maps, combined with a massive proliferation of drones, allows geolocation and targeting with increased precision, with video evidence demonstrating the ability to score first strike hits by indirect fires.
The second crucial assumption is that industry can be turned on and off at will. This mode of thinking was imported from the business sector and has spread through US government culture. In the civilian sector, customers can increase or decrease their orders. The producer may be hurt by a drop in orders but rarely is that drop catastrophic because usually there are multiple consumers and losses can be spread among consumers. Unfortunately, this does not work for military purchases. There is only one customer in the US for artillery shells – the military. Once the orders drop off, the manufacturer must close production lines to cut costs to stay in business. Small businesses may close entirely. Generating new capacity is very challenging, especially as there is so little manufacturing capacity left to draw skilled workers from. This is especially challenging because many older armament production systems are labour intensive to the point where they are practically built by hand, and it takes a long time to train a new workforce. The supply chain issues are also problematic because subcomponents may be produced by a subcontractor who either goes out of business, with loss of orders or retools for other customers or who relies on parts from overseas, possibly from a hostile country.
China’s near monopoly on rare earth materials is an obvious challenge here. Stinger missile production will not be completed until 2026, in part due to component shortages. US reports on the defense industrial base have made it clear that ramping up production in war-time may be challenging, if not impossible, due to supply chain issues and a lack of trained personnel due to the degradation of the US manufacturing base.
Finally, there is an assumption about overall ammunition consumption rates. The US government has always lowballed this number. From the Vietnam era to today, small arms plants have shrunk from five to just one. This was glaring at the height of the Iraq war, when US started to run low on small arms ammunition, causing the US government to buy British and Israeli ammunition during the initial stage of the war. At one point, the US had to dip into Vietnam and even Second World War-era ammo stockpiles of .50 calibre ammunition to feed the war effort. This was largely the result of incorrect assumptions about how effective US troops would be. Indeed, the Government Accountability Office estimated that it took 250,000 rounds to kill one insurgent. Luckily for the US, its gun culture ensured that small arms ammunition industry has a civilian component in the US. This is not the case with other types of ammunition, as shown earlier with Javelin and Stinger missiles. Without access to government methodology, it is impossible to understand why US government estimates were off, but there is a risk that the same errors were made with other types of munitions.
The war in Ukraine demonstrates that war between peer or near-peer adversaries demands the existence of a technically advanced, mass scale, industrial-age production capability. The Russian onslaught consumes ammunition at rates that massively exceed US forecasts and ammunition production. For the US to act as the arsenal of democracy in defense of Ukraine, there must be a major look at the manner and the scale at which the US organizes its industrial base. This situation is especially critical because behind the Russian invasion stands the world’s manufacturing capital – China. As the US begins to expend more and more of its stockpiles to keep Ukraine in the war, China has yet to provide any meaningful military assistance to Russia. The West must assume that China will not allow Russia to be defeated, especially due to a lack of ammunition. If competition between autocracies and democracies has really entered a military phase, then the arsenal of democracy must first radically improve its approach to the production of materiel in wartime.
The more I read the above article the more my mouth hung open. We seem to be moving in a very dangerous direction. Now read what was also in the news recently.
Czech Republic Has Exhausted Its Arms Reserves Supporting Ukraine, PM Reveals
BY TYLER DURDEN
SUNDAY, JUN 26, 2022 – 08:10 AM
By Remix News
Czechia has exhausted its stockpile of arms in helping Ukraine to defend itself following the invasion of Russian forces, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala revealed on Thursday.
World’s No.1 Defense Contractor Lockheed Martin Is Out Of Hypersonic Interceptor Program Race
June 25, 2022
The United States considers the hypersonic missiles of its adversaries, China and Russia, as one of its biggest security threats to the country. To combat the menace of these ‘undetectable’ missiles, the US is working on a hypersonic interceptor program.
Then June 29th this article was in the news:
U.S. increases its firepower in eastern Europe while Canada discusses next steps at NATO
Permanent U.S. Army headquarters announced for Poland amid Russian threat
June 29, 2022
The United States opened the NATO leaders summit in Madrid on Wednesday by putting some serious firepower on the table to bolster the alliance’s defenses throughout Europe.
It will be adding a rotational brigade of troops to Romania where a battle group led by France was recently established, and plans to further bolster contingents in the Baltic states, President Joe Biden told other Western leaders as the meeting opened.
The U.S. will also send two more F-35 squadrons to the United Kingdom and set up surface-to-air defense systems in Germany and Italy.
Also, significantly, the U.S. will establish a permanent headquarters in Poland for the Fifth Army Corps, which will co-ordinate defense in eastern Europe in the event of further Russian aggression.
The measures announced Wednesday are on top of the existing 100,000 U.S. troops that are already based in Europe.
And still more
Russia reacts to NATO expansion deal, calling it ‘destabilizing’
Russia gave an initial reaction to the news that NATO reached a deal to admit Sweden and Finland to the alliance, after Turkey dropped its opposition to the expansion.
“We consider the expansion of NATO a purely destabilizing factor in international affairs,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said, according to a report by Ria Novosti, a Russian state news agency.
Restating Moscow’s “negative” view of the expansion, Ryabkov said it “does not add security” to either the prospective members nor the alliance as a whole, “nor to other countries that perceive the alliance as a threat,” Ryabkov added.
I will let you go to the following links on your own.
I also had an article which I cannot find right now showing how the US already lost the next war and its ability to produce clean energy because most of the rare earth material and those components are already being excavated and owned by China. I will look for it to see if I can find it.
How Long Will Inflation Last?
How long will today’s inflation last? That’s the question on everyone’s mind right now. It’s critical because your investment decisions depend on the answer.
Deficits are the obvious place to begin with. The best way to consider debt is the debt-to-GDP ratio; you put the debt in the context of the gross income needed to service the debt.
The best estimate for annual U.S. GDP as of Dec. 31, 2021, is $24 trillion. The result is a U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio of 125% ($30T ÷ $24T = 1.25). Another estimate puts the ratio at 130%.
Those ratios (and projected ratios for future years) are the highest in U.S. history, higher even than at the end of World War II when it was 119%.
Does the debt-to-GDP ratio matter as far as inflation is concerned? Yes and no. In the short run, probably not. There’s extensive economic literature that shows high debt-to-GDP ratios slow economic growth and put the economy on a disinflationary path.
For now, it’s enough to say that economies with high debt-to-GDP ratios often flip from disinflation (or deflation) to hyperinflation almost overnight as citizens and creditors suddenly realize that inflation is the only way to escape the room.
Monetary policy, our second factor, is at the top of most lists as a likely cause of inflation in the short term. In fact, it will have no inflationary impact at all and is more likely to be disinflationary.
The popular view is that excessive Fed money printing must inevitably cause inflation. The Fed creates so-called base money by buying Treasury securities from banks. But those banks simply return the money to the Fed in the form of excess reserves. So that money does not enter the real economy and plays no role whatsoever in consumption or other activities that could lead to consumer price inflation.
The only form of money that might lead to higher inflation is M1, the money created by commercial banks when they make loans or extend other forms of credit. Increased lending of that sort may or may not happen, but it will have little to do with the Fed.
But an increase in commercial bank lending requires individuals or businesses that are willing to borrow. Right now, neither a lending appetite nor the urge to borrow is present.
One area where Fed policy does touch the real economy is the creation of asset bubbles. Expanding bubbles are not particularly inflationary because the animal spirits are directed at stocks and bonds rather than consumption.
Bursting bubbles can be disinflationary because they tend to change psychology in the direction of reduced consumption and higher unemployment. In short, there’s little reason to believe that current asset bubbles will contribute to inflation.
Current Fed tightening through asset sales and rate hikes has deflated asset bubbles to a certain extent (more is likely to come), which is feeding through to reduced consumption.
On balance, this process is more deflationary than inflationary.
Politics, the third inflationary factor, has had a clear inflationary impact, although the effect may be short-lived. Politics was the driver of massive pandemic relief packages that directed trillions of dollars to individuals, small businesses and global corporations from March 2020–March 2021.
The inflationary impact of this spending came not from higher deficits or Fed monetization of the debt. The inflation came from the fact that money was pumped straight into the hands of consumers at a time when output was constrained by lockdowns and supply chain breakdowns.
The result was a spending spree in the goods sector when the goods were often hard to find.
By March 2021, inflation had ticked up to 2.6%, the highest since August 2018. The following month inflation hit 4.2%, the highest since September 2008. By the end of 2021, inflation was running at 7.0% rate, the highest since 1982. Today, the inflation rate is 8.6%, the highest since 1981.
Supply shocks are the fourth factor that’s driving inflation. This kind of inflation is caused by the supply side rather than the demand side of an economy. Supply shocks are coming from all directions as the cumulative effect of trade wars, pandemic lockdowns and supply chain breakdowns.
This analysis brings us full circle. Inflation is certainly on the rise, but will it persist or fade due to offsetting factors?
In the short run, inflation will persist at or about current levels. Once momentum is established, a trend rarely stops on a dime unless there is a new shock comparable to the pandemic that appeared in 2020.
The better form of the question is whether inflation will maintain current levels of 8.6% or higher over the course of 2022 and 2023 or will it retreat to the 5% level and eventually levels below 3% that were the norm from 2009–2020?
As described above, monetary policy is irrelevant to inflation but is highly relevant to asset bubbles. On balance, the Fed’s current efforts at monetary tightening will collapse asset bubbles in a disorderly way, which will be deflationary in its impact contrary to Fed expectations.
For this reason, the Fed will not be a source of inflation in the near term.
Politics will also not contribute to inflation in the near future. There’s clear evidence that the $5.5 trillion in deficit spending between March 2020 and March 2021 was a cause of the inflation that we’re seeing now.
But the inflationary surges faded once the money was spent. The impact was temporary, not lasting. So monetary policy and politics will not produce persistent inflation under current conditions.
Is there a factor that can drive inflation higher in the short run and possibly change consumer expectations, which will drive prices even higher?
Yes. That factor is the supply chain and the emergence of supply shocks that play out in higher prices. This dynamic is not transient like helicopter money. It feeds on itself if not cured quickly. It’s beyond the control of policymakers because of the complexity of supply chains.
Because of the supply chain disruptions in key commodities such as energy, food and strategic metals, inflation will persist and get worse. This is not because of the Fed or the Congress. These shocks could be alleviated by freeing up the U.S. energy sector and ending the war in Ukraine and the economic sanctions that go with it.
Don’t expect any of those things to happen. The current administration has consistently pushed forward with the green agenda, so you should expect prices to remain high in the U.S. energy industry. And don’t expect any relief In Ukraine where a simple “no” to NATO membership would end the war almost overnight. U.S. leadership from both parties has supported the effort in Ukraine.
Instead, investors should expect persistent inflation until the Fed causes a recession. At that point, stocks will crash and inflation will morph into deflation. The losers will be savers; retirees; and those relying on insurance, annuities, pensions and fixed-rate bonds to pay their bills.
The biggest winners will be those who invest in hard assets such as oil, natural resources, gold, silver and real estate.
Jim Rickards is an American lawyer, economist, and investment banker with 35 years of experience working in capital markets on Wall Street. He was the principal negotiator of the rescue of Long-Term Capital.
And then this
There is just so much scary news that I do not have time to post or comment on it all.
Chilli peppers, coffee, wine: how the climate crisis is causing food shortages
Blistering heat, stronger storms, droughts, floods and fires are putting food production at risk
Tue 28 Jun 2022 11.00 BST
Sriracha fans are a passionate bunch. They have been known to get tattoos of the popular hot sauce on their bodies and dress up like the red plastic squeeze bottle for Halloween.
So it’s no surprise that an unprecedented shortage of the beloved condiment would send loyalists scrambling to avoid a spiceless summer.
Huy Fong Foods, the southern California company that produces 20m bottles of sriracha annually, has experienced a low inventory of red jalapeño chilli peppers in recent years made worse by spring’s crop failure.
The cause? Severe weather and drought conditions in Mexico.
It’s not just chilli peppers. Mustard producers in France and Canada said extreme weather caused a 50% reduction in seed production last year, leading to a shortage of the condiment on grocery store shelves. Blistering heat, stronger storms, droughts, floods, fires and changes in rainfall patterns are also affecting the cost and availability of staples, including wheat, corn, coffee, apples, chocolate and wine. The climate crisis is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events – and it’s putting food production at risk.
“Almost everything we grow and raise in the US is facing some climatic stress,” said Carolyn Dimitri, nutrition and food studies professor at NYU.
Wheat and other grain crops are particularly vulnerable. In the Great Plains, where most of the US’s wheat is harvested, drought depressed the winter crop. Abandonment levels for winter wheat in the US – primarily in Texas and Oklahoma – are the highest since 2002. Meanwhile in Montana, flooding is threatening grain crops.
“This becomes important because the US doesn’t have a large surplus and can’t really contribute at this exact minute to fill in the global gap in wheat supplies due to the Ukraine crisis,” said Dimitri.
The impact of the climate crisis on grain crops extends beyond the US. In India, a fierce heatwave damaged the wheat crop due to record-setting temperatures throughout the spring and summer. As Delhi hit 120F in May, the government placed a ban on wheat exports, driving up prices even further than the rise following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Climate change could seriously affect the global production of maize and wheat as early as 2030, a 2021 Nasa study found, with maize crop yields estimated to decline by 24%.
Apples are another food already at risk. Last year’s apple harvest in Michigan and Wisconsin was compromised because of heavy frost in the spring. According to the USDA, changes in climate, such as warming, can lead to smaller yields, lower growth and changes in the fruit’s quality.
“Humans are scrappy little creatures so we’re still growing food and yields are going up by and large, but as the temperature goes up, the challenge becomes greater,” said Ricky Robertson, a senior researcher at International Food Policy Research Institute.
Extreme weather is affecting the cost of coffee. Between April 2020 and December 2021, coffee prices increased 70% after droughts and frost destroyed crops in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee-producing country. The economic ramifications could be profound, since it’s estimated that as many as 120 million of the world’s poorest depend on coffee production for their survival.
Famine is coming. I have shared this prophecy about Damascus many times. I do so again now.
Isa 17:1 The burden against Damascus: Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a heap of ruins.
Isa 17:2 The cities of Aroer are forsaken; now they are for flocks; they shall lie down, and no one terrifies them.
Isa 17:3 And the fortress shall cease from Ephraim, and the kingdom from Damascus, and the rest of Syria. They shall be as the glory of the sons of Israel, says Jehovah of Hosts.
Isa 17:4 And it shall be in that day, the glory of Jacob shall be made thin, and the fatness of his flesh shall become lean.
Isa 17:5 And it shall be as reaping of the harvest grain, and his arm reaps the ears. And it shall be as he who gathers ears in the Valley of the Giants.
Isa 17:6 Yet gleaning grapes shall be left in it, as the shaking of an olive tree, two or three ripe olives in the top of the uppermost branch, four or five in the fruit-tree branches of it, says Jehovah, the God of Hosts.
Jacob is going to be made thin, and his flesh will be lean. WHEN? When does this take place? When Damascus is a ruinous heap. Are you paying attention?
Watch this drone footage from just three years ago.
Nov 28, 2019 Newly released drone footage shows the destruction caused to towns and cities in Syria during the country’s nearly nine-year long civil war. The aerial footage from October 2019, provided by the International Committee of the Red Cross, shows the extent of the damage to buildings, homes and streets in Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor and rural Damascus
With inflation going up in the months to come, everything including food is going to go in price.
From war to wild weather, global crop problems point to years of high food prices
(Reuters) – Eric Broten had planned to sow about 5,000 acres of corn this year on his farm in North Dakota, but persistent springtime rains limited him to just 3,500 in a state where a quarter or more of the planned corn could remain unsown this year.
The difficulty planting corn, the single largest grain crop in the world, in the northern United States adds to a string of troubled crop harvests worldwide that point to multiple years of tight supplies and high food costs.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a major agricultural exporter, sent prices of wheat, soy and corn to near records earlier this year. Poor weather has also reduced grain harvests in China, India, South America and parts of Europe. Fertilizer shortages meanwhile are cutting yields of many crops around the globe.
The world has perhaps never seen this level of simultaneous agricultural disruption, according to agriculture executives, industry analysts, farmers and economists interviewed by Reuters, meaning it may take years to return to global food security.
“Typically when we’re in a tight supply-demand environment you can rebuild it in a single growing season. Where we are today, and the constraints around boosting production and (war in) Ukraine … it’s two to three years before you get out of the current environment,” said Jason Newton, chief economist for fertilizer producer Nutrien Ltd..
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said last week that the world faces an unprecedented hunger crisis, with a risk of multiple famines this year and a worse situation in 2023.
Ahead of a crucial North American harvest, grain seeding delays from Manitoba to Indiana have sparked worries about lower production. A smaller corn crop in the top-producing United States will ripple through the supply chain and leave consumers paying even more for meat than they already are, as corn is a key source of livestock feed.
Global corn supplies have been tight since the pandemic started in 2020, due to transportation problems and strong demand, and are expected to fall further. The U.S. Agriculture Department (USDA) expects end-of-season U.S. corn stocks to be down 33% from pre-pandemic levels in September before this year’s harvest, and down 37% in September 2023.