The Sword-2020-The Drought

Joseph F. Dumond

Isa 6:9-12 And He said, Go, and tell this people, You hear indeed, but do not understand; and seeing you see, but do not know. Make the heart of this people fat, and make their ears heavy, and shut their eyes; lest they see with their eyes, and hear with their ears, and understand with their hearts, and turn back, and be healed. Then I said, Lord, how long? And He answered, Until the cities are wasted without inhabitant, and the houses without man, and the land laid waste, a desolation, and until Jehovah has moved men far away, and the desolation in the midst of the land is great.
Published: Dec 15, 2022
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News Letter 5858-041
The 6th Year of the 4th Sabbatical Cycle
The 27th year of the 120th Jubilee Cycle
The 22nd day of the 10th month 5858 years after the creation of Adam
The 4th Sabbatical Cycle after the 119th Jubilee Cycle
The Sabbatical Cycle of Sword, Famines, and Pestilence
The 3rd year Tithe

December 17, 2022

Shabbat Shalom to the Royal Family of Yehovah,

I am going to drop all the normal things I have here at the beginning of each week’s Newsletter. You can go back to last weeks Newsletter to get any promotional material or the link to the Shabbat meeting. Last week I shared with you about the coming famine which is the curse for the next Sabbatical Cycle. Keep that in mind as you read this weeks Newsletter.

Torah Portions

We read through the entire Torah, along with the Prophets and the New Testament, once over the course of 3 1/2 years. Or, according to the Sabbatical Cycle, which means we read it all twice over a 7-year period. This allows us to cover more in-depth rather than being rushed to cover as much as is covered on an annual basis. We allow all to comment and take part in the discussions.

Septennial Torah Portion

If you go to Torah Portion at our archived section, you can then go to the 6th year which is the 6th year of the Sabbatical Cycle, the one we are in now, as we state at the top of every News Letter. There you can scroll down to the current date, 2022, and see that this Shabbat we could very well be midrashing about:

This was week’s portion

Numbers 4

Job 3-6

Hebrews 1-2

If you missed last week’s exciting discoveries as we studied that section you can go and watch past Shabbats on our media section.

USA Speaking Tour

Thursday evening as I left Charlotte N.C. I ran into rain and it became very difficult to drive with so many large rigs around me and the glare of the lights,  twisting roads with narrow lanes so I pulled over. This is where we left off last week. Friday I arrived in Franklin, Tennessee which is just south of Nashville. I was not going to be speaking here until Monday evening.

It was a disappointing long week the week before as mentioned last week and we had no one to share our message with all this time. But this break was needed.

We got some good news on Monday.

It was the time I needed to hunker down and get the final edits of the books done. We finished the book by Monday afternoon before I headed off to my meeting. So now just one final read through and we are ready to publish it this week if possible.

Also on Monday we got the videos from Steve and Yvette from Alley of the Way who also had Robert Wooten and Jeff Haufler of Sabbath Keepers Fellowship, all from Texas, who did all the editing for us and made the videos presentable. I cannot thank them enough for helping us to get this message out to those places where we may never get a chance to go.

Here are the links to the videos so you all can watch them.

Part One

Part Two

Part Three

Part Four


The people I met with were hosted by Chris at his home, but organized by Jennifer and Mark Lindsy who had brought together a super great group to talk to. They too were on a different calendar than I was but they were engaged in everything I was saying and had their eyes popped open a number of times as I presented my information. They never knew how easy it was to know when the Jubilee years were. They were shocked to learn Daniel 9 was about King David and not Yehshua. By the time we got to the Abomination they were numb from the many revelations they had gained. We did get off on some rabbit trails like the Barley ceremony and how it depicts the first resurrection of the Saints and then by understanding that, then you would know Shavuot is the next resurrection just a few years out from us.

With this group, it was not necessary to explain every detail of the Holy Days because they knew them, and understood them. They just needed to be guided to how they are connected to prophesy today, which they all saw. I was impressed with this group as they were mostly related and family. I was very impressed. In fact, all the groups I have met on this tour have impressed me to no end. Friendly, respectful and appreciative of the information that they had now received. That has been very encouraging.

When I arrived in London Kentucky Ella Morgan was there shower me with gifts of food. Like I was starving or something LOL. She was very welcoming.

She took me out to see these famous Red Bird Petroglyphs with Hebrew Egyptian Punic Greek Ogam Gaelic writing on them. What they proved is that the crews from the Mediterranean Sea region were here in North America in the 9th century BC. King David is known to have had ships come to North America in the 10th century BC so the 9th Century BC would have been during King Solomon’s period. Anyway this was very cool to see first hand.

The following day I headed out to London, Kentucky, where Ella had two meetings set up for me. One on Friday Night, December 16, at 6 PM at the Comfort Inn Hotel. The next day at 10 AM and then continuing in the afternoon. Ella is also trying to get me on the local Radio Station and had me teach at a private home to one couple. On top of this she is bringing me food nonstop. She is working her tail off trying to help get this message out here in this area. You can’t help but love this lady.

Comfort Suites 1918 Highway 192 W, London Ky 40744.

We will then head to ELLIS Wiley 3228 Hickory St, Catlettsburg, Ky 41129 to speak on Sunday, December 18. This is the group I spoke with many years ago when Ella could only stay for part of my presentation we did at the shopping mall. She was upset she had to go part way through the teaching. After this I will be heading home.

We also have a meeting scheduled for January 7, 2023 In Golden Colorado.

Dwelling Place Ministries
16800 West 9th Avenue
Golden, CO 80401
Sabbath, January 7, 2023
1:30 PM

And we have two more meetings planned for Scotland February 3-5, 2023, and Birmingham, England on February 10-12, 2023.

If you have groups in the area or would like to have me at your group, then drop us a line and we will see what we can work out with you. It is time for this message to go out. We need all of your help to do it.

I want to now back up and briefly share that on Sunday, December 11,  before I taught the group in Spring Hill Tennessee, I was able to have lunch with Judith Dennis. We talked and it was not long before we were discussing what I was teaching. Two things took place as is normal. When Judith said to look up that particular word which we both had assumed meant exactly what it said we were both shocked to learn that it did not. The second word we looked up was the word Sword.  And that is what this Newsletter is going to be about.

As I wrap this speaking tour up and head back home, many many people helped to organize like Shane and Anita Diltz as well as Ella Morgan. I was also welcomed into many people’s homes along the way and sent off with lots of snacks to eat along the way. I got to meet brethren in the flesh and see just how incredible the body of Yehovah is across this country. Some are more advanced than others in their studies, but all of them are called by Yehovah. For the most part, Yehovah has His people chosen. It is time to get ready because the Groom is at the door. 2024 begins the final ten years of judgment on this world. Let the world know.

I sincerely want to thank all those who hosted and brought food and snacks or went out with me to eat and to those who just came out and heard our message. Thank you to each and every one. I can’t wait for all of us to be ruled by Yehovah and I no longer feel the need to teach. Shalom and may Yehovah guide you through the days in front of us.

When is a Sword Not A Sword

Since 2005 we have read this verse a thousand times, and every single time when we read sword, we have presumed it to mean war.

On December 11, 2022, I had lunch with an old friend. Yes, we are both getting old now. I was talking to her and saying how I had been wrong about the sword that was to come in 2020. But I was right about the Plague which came as COVID and then this ushered in the famine which has gone from 80 Million in 2017 to 345 million in 2022.

Many people have tried to say we are at war now with the left and the right hating each other. Or that the needle in reference to the Vaccine for COVID, was or is the sword. Now I am thinking the Russia Ukraine war could lead to WW III because the USA and the EU are fighting Russia using Ukraine as a proxy. They both are supplying the armaments to help Ukraine push back the Russians. And this could still be right.

I have said in the past that Israel fell right at the end of the Sabbatical Cycle in the year 723 BC. This is the 6th year in the fourth Sabbatical Cycle.

I have also said that Yehshua was killed on the 4th day of the Week.

And it is with this information or patterns that I presumed that in our 4th Sabbatical Cycle, the sword spoken of in Lev 26 was going to come to pass.

We are now at the end of 2022. We are about to enter 2023. I must face up to those things I have said. We believed that the sword was going to come in 2020. We also believed it would come on Shavuot May 31, 2020.

Then the barley came early, and we kept our Holy Days one month earlier than the rest. Now I had to relook at the middle of the week. Was it still May 31, or was it going to be May 3, 2020, because we were now a month early?  I was trying to rationalize it all, and I could not. Then on March 11, 2020, W.H.O. announced a worldwide famine and that week, the world began to lock down. The brethren were in a tither about the masks and locking down. President Trump was beginning to fail in his leadership with this new crisis unfolding.

George Floyd was killed the week before May 31, but by May 31, the USA erupted in riots and BLM was born. Was this the start of the sword curse? The riots went on for months and when President Trump lost the election, more strife and fighting began and did not come to an end until after the January 6, 2021 riots on Capital Hill, when President Biden was sworn in. Was this the sword curse? Were they going to break out into civil war? It was not a worldwide event. What am I not seeing?

I had told James that we would take down if nothing happened in 2020. We even had a countdown counter on the website. There are others still running inside that link. I had fully expected the sword to strike during 2020. I even went so far as to expect it on May 31, 2020. But then COVID hit. It was not in just one country, but it was worldwide. It was in every country and wreaking havoc everywhere as the nations tried to battle it.

March 11, 2020, when W.H.O. made the announcement, it was the very day we kept Passover that year. Something major had just happened around the world. The curse of Leviticus 26 is sword, plague and famine. It has three curses wrapped up in one. I had the correct year. It came in the middle of the Shabua, the middle of the week, or the middle of the Jubilee Cycle, exactly as we had been saying, but it was not the sword. It was not a war!

A worldwide event took place, and it was announced or shouted out on Passover Day. The very day I kept Passover on. How could I not pay attention? But what was going on? I did not know. But I did know I was not going to shut down We had something going on in the very middle of the Jubilee Cycle, which was spoken of in the Leviticus 26 curse. It was the Plague but not the Sword. Even though the sword was mentioned first, which is why I was saying it was coming first, Yehovah sent the second plague first. Or did He?

Read the curse that goes with the 4th Sabbatical Cycle and think about it. I have not changed my position since I began to speak on this in 2005. Guess what? I have not changed my position now, although I had changed it during COVID as it seemed obvious I was wrong. But was I?

Read it yourself.

Lev 26:23  And if you will not be reformed by Me by these things, but will still walk contrary to Me,

Lev 26:24  📝  then I will walk contrary to you and will punish you seven times more for your sins.

Lev 26:25  And I will bring a sword on you that shall execute the vengeance of the covenant. And when you are gathered inside your cities, I will send the plague among you. And you shall be delivered into the hand of the enemy.

Lev 26:26  When I have broken the staff of your bread, ten women shall bake your bread in one oven, and they shall deliver you your bread again by weight. And you shall eat and not be satisfied.

The next verses are what I am saying belongs to the 5th Sabbatical Cycle. And these are yet to come. The 5th Sabbatical Cycle is about to begin in just one year’s time.

Lev 26:27  And if you will not for all of this listen to Me, but will walk contrary to Me,

Lev 26:28  then I will walk contrary to you also in fury. And I, even I, will chastise you seven times for your sins.

Lev 26:29  And you shall eat the flesh of your sons, and the flesh of your daughters you shall eat.

Many people do not want to even mention these verses for fear of speaking out loud a curse over them.

Pro 26:2  As the bird by wandering, as the swallow by flying, so the curse without cause shall not come.

They neglect the fact that Yehovah is the one who curses you when you do not obey.

Deu 28:63  And it shall be, as Jehovah rejoiced over you to do you good and to multiply you, so Jehovah will rejoice over you to destroy you and to bring you to nothing. And you shall be plucked from off the land where you go to possess it.

I have taken a lot of abuse from certain people because the sword had not come. They reveled in the fact that they claimed I was wrong. But I did not have an answer for them other than to say that the other part of the curse, the plague and the famine, did come. It just did not come in the order I expected it.

Then this past week I had lunch with a sister, Judith Dennis, in Tennessee and in the course of our talk, she said to look up the meaning of the word “sword.” We had been checking other words in our discussion, and then we did this word. Here is the meaning:

H2719   (Ancient Hebrew)
H2719 = AHLB# 2199 (N)
2199) Brh% (Brh% HhRB) ac: Waste co: Sword ab: ?: [from: rh – heat]

V) Brh% (Brh% Hh-RB) – Waste: A dry wasteland. Also a place that has been laid waste and made desolate. [Hebrew and Aramaic] [freq. 41] (vf: Paal, Niphal, Hiphil, Hophal, Pual, Participle) |kjv: waste, dry, desolate, slay, decay, destroy| {H2717, H2718}

Nf) Brh% (Brh% Hh-RB) – I. Sword: A weapon used to lay waste a city. II. Waste: A dry or desolate place. [freq. 423] |kjv: sword, knife, dagger, axe, mattock| {H2719, H2720}

Nf1) Ebrh% (Ebrh% HhR-BH) – Waste: [freq. 50] |kjv: waste, desolate, desert, decayed, dry land, dry ground| {H2723, H2724}

gm) Brfh% (Brfh% HhW-RB) – I. Heat: II. Waste: [freq. 16] |kjv: heat, dry, drought, waste, desolation| {H2721}

jm) Nfbrh% (Nfbrh% HhR-BWN) – Drought: [freq. 1] |kjv: drought| {H2725}

The primary meaning was a weapon to lay waste to a city. I have just ASSUMED that was a war machine, an army, missiles or bombs or something like that, including nuclear. BUT THAT IS NOT WHAT IT SAYS!!!

IT SAYS A WEAPON TO LAY WASTE A CITY.  In ancient times they laid siege to a city. But who is the one attacking the city in this verse? It is Yehovah! What are Yehovah’s weapons? Yehovah is now attacking the entire world.

Let’s look at the meaning of this word:

H2719   (Brown-Driver-Briggs) חרב chereb

BDB Definition:

1) sword, knife

1a) sword

1b) knife

1c) tools for cutting stone

Part of Speech: noun feminine

H2719   (Strong) חֶרֶב  chereb  kheh’-reb

From H2717; drought; also a cutting instrument (from its destructive effect), as a knife, sword, or other sharp implement: – axe, dagger, knife, mattock, sword, tool.

H2717   (Strong) חָרֵב    חָרַב chârab    chârêb khaw-rab’, khaw-rabe’

A primitive root; to parch (through drought), that is, (by analogy) to desolate, destroy, kill: – decay, (be) desolate, destroy (-er), (be) dry (up), slay, X surely, (lay, lie, make) waste.

The word sword can also mean drought. WHY DID I NEVER SEE THIS BEFORE NOW? The weapon Yehovah was using to cut through  Israel and the world was drought. Yehovah was going to parch the land to destroy it and dry it up.

Read what various versions of the bible say Jeremiah says:

Jer 50:38  A drought is on her waters; and they shall be dried up. For it is the land of idols, and they act madly with idols. (MKJV)

Jer 50:38  A sword [is] on her waters, and they have been dried up, || For it [is] a land of carved images, || And they boast themselves in idols. (LSV)

Jer 50:38  A sword is on her waters, and they have been dried up, For it is a land of graven images, And in idols they do boast themselves. YLT

They have interchanged a sword and drought as though they are the same word in Jeremiah 50. Read how this same word is translated in Isaiah. The word here could have been sword but it is dry up.

Isa 19:5  And the waters shall fail from the sea, and the river shall fail and dry up.

Isa 19:6  And rivers shall be fouled; the Nile of Egypt will languish and dry up; the reed and the rush shall decay.

Isa 19:7  Bare places shall be at the Nile, by the mouth of the Nile, and everything sown by the Nile shall dry up, driven away, and be no more.

Now that we know this read the prophecy in Revelation. It has the same curse as we have read in Leviticus 26:

Revelation 6:8 And I looked, and behold, a pale horse! And its rider’s name was Death, and Hades followed him. And they were given authority over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by wild beasts of the earth.

We are being told that drought will cause famine and pestilence and by these, 2 billion people will die.

The prophet Haggai also uses the same word that Strong’s said is a sword, but in Haggai, the word is translated as drought.

Hag 1:11  And I called H7121  for a drought H2721  upon H5921  the land, H776  and upon H5921  the mountains, H2022  and upon H5921  the corn, H1715  and upon H5921  the new wine, H8492  and upon H5921  the oil, H3323  and upon H5921  that which H834  the ground H127  bringeth forth, H3318  and upon H5921  men, H120  and upon H5921  cattle, H929  and upon H5921  all H3605  the labour H3018  of the hands. H3709

Since 2005, I have been saying we would have a sword or war in this 4th Sabbatical Cycle. I even thought it was going to come in 2020. The fourth curse is sword, plague and famine. This curse takes place from 2017-2023. The word sword in this curse means both war and drought.

But we have had drought drying up the rivers or the world not just this year, but for many years. Lake Mead is drying up and has been now for 40 years. Read this report from the UN.

The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) wrote an article titled Drought in Numbers, 2022, which was released at UNCCD’s 15th Conference of Parties (COP15). In that article they stated that since 2000, the number and duration of droughts has risen by 29%. The UN has also stated that in 2022, more than 2.3 billion people face water stress and almost 160 million children are exposed to severe and prolonged droughts. They predict that by 2030, an estimated 700 million people will be at risk of being displaced by drought.

These United Nations reports are confirming the very things I have been warning about since 2005. Drought (Not necessarily WAR), famine and plague will come and has come starting in 2020. This is not my imagination claiming this. The very things I have been saying are now backed up by the United Nations reports themselves.

UN Secretary General António Guterres at the Opening Ceremony of the World Leaders Summit | Cop 27 in Sharm El Sheik, Egypt in 2022 told us we now have 8 billion people on this earth.

Allow me to remind you of the secretary’s warning to us in his opening address:

“the clock is ticking, And We are in the fight of our lives. And we are losing. Greenhouse gas emissions keep growing. Global temperatures keep rising. And our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible. We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator.”

“It is the defining issue of our age. It is the central challenge of our century. It is unacceptable, outrageous and self-defeating to put it on the back burner. Indeed, many of today’s conflicts are linked with growing climate chaos.”
“Humanity has a choice:  cooperate or perish.
At the same time, we must acknowledge a harsh truth: there is no adapting to a growing number of catastrophic events causing enormous suffering around the world. The deadly impacts of climate change are here and now. Loss and damage can no longer be swept under the rug. It is a moral imperative. Many are blindsided by impacts for which they had no warning or means of preparation.”
UN Secretary General António Guterres, is correct in his assessment but he is wrong in how to rectify the problem. It is not by taxing the oil producing companies or the rich nations of the world and then having those funds go to the UN or her many octopian arms before being distributed to the poorer nations.

With current supply chain disruptions, along with failing crop production from a lack of rain and snow, as well as a lack of affordability of fertilizers the world over, as David Beasley of the World Food Program has said, we are in the perfect, perfect storm in regard to famine. Add to this our/my understanding that the world temperature will be getting warmer and warmer as the UN tries to keep the increase below 1.5 when in fact it is already over 2 and will go to 3 and even 4 degrees in the coming few years. Our understanding is based upon Leviticus 26.

The book of Revelation tells us it is going to get hotter yet still. This 5th curse of Leviticus 26 also tells us that the crop failures are going to be so severe, that people are going to resort to eating their own children around the world just to survive.

Lev 26:27  And if you will not for all of this listen to Me, but will walk contrary to Me,

Lev 26:28  then I will walk contrary to you also in fury. And I, even I, will chastise you seven times for your sins.

Lev 26:29  And you shall eat the flesh of your sons, and the flesh of your daughters you shall eat.

Lev 26:30  And I will destroy your high places and cut down your images, and throw your carcasses on the carcasses of your idols, and My soul shall despise you.

Lev 26:31  And I will make your cities waste and cause your sanctuaries to be deserted. And I will not smell the savor of your sweet odors.

Lev 26:32  And I will turn the land into wasteland. And your enemies who dwell in it shall be astonished at it.

Lev 26:33  And I will scatter you among the nations, and will draw out a sword after you. And your land shall be waste, and your cities waste.

That word in verse 33 is or can also be drought. This drought is here and it’s going to get much more severe. Just today, Thursday, I read this in the news

LOS ANGELES (AP) — The nation’s largest water supplier has declared a drought emergency for all of Southern California, clearing the way for potential mandatory water restrictions early next year that could impact 19 million people.

It doesn’t rain much in Southern California, so the district imports about half of its water from the Colorado River and the northern Sierra Nevada via the State Water Project — a complex system of dams, canals and reservoirs that provides drinking water for much of the state.

It’s been so dry the past three years that those water deliveries have hit record lows. Earlier this year, the district declared a drought emergency for the agencies that mostly depend on the State Water Project, which covers about 7 million people.

State officials recently announced that water agencies like Metropolitan will only get 5% of their requested supplies for the start of 2023 due to lower reservoir levels. Some agencies may get a little bit more if its necessary for drinking, sanitation or other health and safety concerns.

The drought declaration comes as Colorado River water managers are meeting in Las Vegas to discuss growing concerns about the river’s future after more than two decades of drought. Scientists say climate change has contributed to sustained warmer and drier weather in the West, threatening water supplies. The river’s two largest reservoirs — Lake Mead on the Nevada-Arizona state line and Lake Powell on the Arizona-Utah border — are each about one-quarter full.

I am now vindicated by having a much clearer understanding of the Hebrew word Charab. It ties into the world events we have all been watching. It is not about whether or not I am right. That is not the point. With my limited knowledge, I have shouted this warning to the best of my ability. In the distance, I thought I saw a sword. But now that we are much closer, I can clearly see it now is drought which is the sword of Yehovah.

I do not care what you think of me or if you want to mock me more. This 5th curse is now set up and is going to be executed worldwide. Famine and cannibalism are going to be the subject of the next ten years. Pray and obey, brethren. You must obey if you want to have any chance of surviving what is coming.

Lest you leave here depressed, read what David said about this very thing.

Psalm 37:18-19 The Lord knows the days of the blameless, and their heritage will remain forever; they are not put to shame in evil times; in the days of famine they have abundance.


Windfalls Await Investors in Ammunition

There may be a great future in defense production, thanks to near-empty armories


The Javelin missile is in short supply. Photo: Raytheon

In the now classic 1967 film The Graduate, protagonist Benjamin Braddock, being feted with a graduation party, is pulled aside by a friend of his parents. Mr Maguire says he has only one word for Ben: “plastics.” Then, using more words, Maguire tells Ben, “There’s a great future in plastics.”

Today it looks more and more like there is a great future in ammunition, which is in short supply in Ukraine and Russia, and in the United States and elsewhere in NATO. Although it’s open to debate whether the future in ammunition can indeed be called great (depends on how you define “great”), there is certainly a huge need out there, and there are profits to be made.



“Merchants of Death” (1935) by Mabel Dwright for Works Progress Administration. Image: Public domain

The widespread ammunition shortage has caught nearly all war professionals (planners, operators, analysts) by surprise. The Ukraine war is eating up available ammunition supplies at a huge rate.

Reportedly, the the Russians alone are firing off 20,000 artillery rounds a day. And, while we don’t have reliable numbers from the Ukrainian side, they are using their big guns so heavily that hundreds of them are being sent to Poland and elsewhere for urgent repairs.

Most of the NATO players are out of ammunition, or nearly so. The German Defense Ministry has said it could only fight a war for about a week because of supply and manpower shortages, while a German lawmaker in the know says the limit is more like two days.

Germany has offshored important parts of its ammunition production, mostly to Switzerland. The Swiss, because of their neutrality laws, won’t ship any ammunition (directly or indirectly) to  Ukraine. The Germans have asked at the highest level at least twice, but Swiss lawmakers, including those on the right who support Ukraine, favor protecting Swiss neutrality.

The impact is plain to see. Gepard air defense tanks, also known as Cheetah flak guns, were gifted to Ukraine by the German army. These flak guns are a weapon of last resort against drones and cruise missiles, but they require a lot of specialized ammunition.


A Gepard Cheetah flak gun. Photo: Wikipedia

The problem has not been limited to Germany. The Swiss also blocked 22 Swiss-made Piranha III tanks that the Danes wanted to supply to Ukraine.


The Germans also have trouble in their own production because they depend on specialized cotton linters that they buy exclusively from China for use as a component for propelling charges in artillery shells. It isn’t that China does not want to ship to Germany. Rather, Chinese exports have been disrupted by Covid lockdowns and the Germans have to wait for supply to catch up with their need.

But Germany’s problems go a good bit deeper. Despite saying it was going to build up its defense capability in light of an aggressive Russia and the travails of the Ukraine war, Germany will not meet its defense-spending or defense-production goals.

In fact, German defense dollars will still fall well below the agreed NATO 2% of GDP threshold. Meanwhile the German Ministry of Finance has rejected Defense Ministry requests to ramp up artillery-shell production.

German soldiers are missing all sorts of supplies including in some cases winter socks, pants and ballistic jackets. And Germany is not fulfilling even its modest manpower goals (for its all-volunteer army) because the pay isn’t so good and there are better jobs to be had.

Russian problems

Russia also is running out of some ammunition, but that is mostly the more sophisticated stuff including guided rockets and cruise missiles.


Russian factories were, until just recently, not operating on a war footing, and they need to staff up to meet urgent supply requirements. That may sound easy to do, but finding skilled labor in Russia is a challenge. Russian President Vladimir Putin is pushing his defense industry to step up production, but there are a number of barriers.

Like NATO countries such as the United States, Russia depends on civilian high technology industries to supply parts critical for computers, guidance systems, fuses and sensors. Russia’s problem is it does not have much of a civilian industrial high-tech base. So Russia buys parts from foreign countries.

Sanctions have impacted Russia’s ability to get electronics and other parts from outside.  Ukrainian experts who have recovered many Russian weapons have been amazed at how many of the critical components come from the United States and Europe.

Finally the Pentagon, after years of paying no attention, has sent a team of weapons experts to Ukraine to figure out what is leaking from the West. Meanwhile, the US Department of Justice has brought its first indictments of Russians running a complex sanctions-busting smuggling scheme, although its discovery likely is only the tip of the iceberg.

Russia also is trying to get weapons and ammunition from outside and maybe succeeding.  Certainly Iran is supplying drones and some missiles, and it is likely, although not proven, that North Korea is also selling to Russia.


But neither Iran nor North Korea has the smart weapons the Russian military needs, which means in this category Russia is mostly on its own – unless China, which does have smart weapons, changes its view on Russia and the Ukraine war.

US problems

Like Germany and other NATO countries, the US has significant ammunition supply problems that fall into two categories: smart weapons and not-smart weapons (aka standard ammunition).

The shortage of smart weapons has come about because the US has used its critical war stocks to supply Ukraine, something the Pentagon never planned. Thus now famous weapons such as Stinger man-portable missiles and Javelin anti-tank rockets  are now almost out of stock.


The Stinger missile is a lightweight, self-contained air defense system that can be rapidly deployed by ground troops. Photo: US Army

The Pentagon is putting cash into making more – even though it had planned to replace the venerable Stinger, which dates back to 1981, with a new man-portable missile with better threat detection, better range and greater accuracy.

One of the Pentagon’s newest systems, a joint project between Raytheon in the United States, and Kongsberg in Norway, also is in trouble. Known as NASAMS, this mobile anti-aircraft missile system was rushed to Ukraine to help the Ukrainians deal with Russia’s cruise-missile and drone attacks on critical infrastructure, especially power plants and electricity transmission systems.

NASAMS takes the beyond-visual-range AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missile and repurposes it into a ground-to-air missile by linking it to ground radars. The AIM-120 is the main US air-to-air missile for fighter aircraft, and AIM-120s have been exported to allies and friends around the globe.

However, when you start stripping out air-to-air missile stocks to support NASAMS, you open up a major vulnerability. AIM-120s take some considerable time to replace, and the US has been begging AIM-120 customers to supply in-stock AIMs to Ukraine. Many are reluctant to do that for the same reason the US Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps are reluctant to part with their stocks of AIM-120s.

In the “not-too-smart” weapons category, the US is short of conventional ammunition, particularly 155mm artillery shells that are the backbone not only of Ukraine’s artillery capability (as older Russian-made Ukrainian artillery tubes wear out) but also the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s.

US President Joe Biden’s administration has agreed to step up domestic production and buy shells from abroad. The Pentagon recently cut a deal for 100,000 155mm shells from South Korea. The supplies will be shipped to the United States and the US can then supply them to Ukraine.

But the deal is not ironclad and may yet fail, as South Korea struggles with two conflicting objectives: not supplying any weapons to Ukraine versus growing to be the fourth-largest weapons exporter in the world.

Implications for the Ukraine War

Pentagon procurement officials think that the Ukraine war is going to drag on, perhaps for three or four years. They believe that the US, given time to ramp up domestic production, can out-supply Russia. While they don’t say much more, it is clear that the Pentagon is planning for a long conflict and thinks it can win by being the “arsenal of democracy.”

During World War II the United States ramped up its production capacity to full-war footing, converting domestic production to producing war materiel. Detroit stopped producing automobiles and started producing tanks, guns, trucks and other equipment for the war effort.

The US through its lend-lease program not only supplied the UK but actually was a bigger supplier to the Soviet Union, keeping Russia in the battle even where the US and UK were trying to minimize casualties and hold off committing to the full-blown invasion of Europe that eventually happened in Normandy starting on June 6, 1944, late in the war.



A Lend-Lease Sherman tank in Soviet service in the 64th Guards Tank Regiment, 8th Guards Mechanized Corps, 1945. Photo: US Army Signal Corps

Today the US is nowhere near becoming an “arsenal of democracy” in the same way it was during World War II. In fact, the US defense industry has barely ramped up.

Like Russia, the US also has a problem with foreign supplies. Today, high-end semiconductors and specialized materials, including rare earths, come mostly from Asia – especially Taiwan and China. Such “supply-chain problems” have impacted defense production as suppliers wait for key parts.

Production problems go beyond high-end parts. Forgings and castings, and special materials such as titanium, are also difficult to get in a timely manner. In some cases – Stinger missiles are a good example – some of the components aren’t even made any more, making it necessary to redesign an already obsolete missile.

Should the fighting in Ukraine become more, not less, intense in the weeks and months ahead, Pentagon supply issues may become supercritical. Russia faces similar problems. Where this ends up is open to speculation, but more and more supplies will be needed.

Investors buying defense-company stocks may, no matter the Ukraine war’s outcome, get a windfall.

Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and at Yorktown Institute.


  1. al

    seems like this relates to the abomination that makes desolate and the upcoming nuclear war that is prophesied in so many parts of scripture.

  2. Robert Marr

    Ok drought can mean sword. 👍

    However 2020 ushered in the Revelation 5 seals

    Covid conquered the whole world
    Russia making war on the West
    Inflation recession famine is striking every nation

    Like Lev 26, the Seals also accumulate not vanish so we should not expect those seals to stop…

  3. Jason Berning

    The curses were for Israel when they broke torah. The judgments were poured out upon them in the last days of 30-70ad. It was to happen in Yeshua’s generation as he stated and was the conclusion of daniel’s 490 year prophecy.

    Luk 21:22  “Because these are days of vengeance, to fill all that have been written. 

    People don’t believe their scriptures when they pull prophecy out of context and time.

    1Jn_2:18  Little children, it is the last hour. And as you have heard that the anti-messiah is coming, even now many anti-messiahs have come. This is how we know that it is the last hour.

    It has all been fulfilled and Yeshua did not fail in his mission. Both comings were first century and he completed his work and set up his unending kingdom (spiritual).

    • Hans

      Hi Jason

      I read your comment. What is your opinion by the gathering of the lost ten tribes into Israel. The reunification of the lost sheep and Judah, could this also be spiritual and not phisic.
      Greetings Hans

    • Anon

      Dan 9:24 Seventy weeks are decreed as to your people and as to your holy city, to finish the transgression and to make an end of sins, and to make atonement for iniquity, and to bring in everlasting righteousness, and to seal up the vision and prophecy, and to anoint the Most Holy.

      This is Daniel’s 3,430-year prophecy (70×49), which has not concluded yet.

  4. Jesus Santos

    Shabbat Shalom Prophet Joe and the Roysl Family of Yahweh/Yehovah!

    We are so close to the end of this age! Prophet Joe, as nobody else on this planet is screaming out about the coming horrendous events starting in Sept.2023 with the Abomination of Desolation, you and Randy must be the prophetic Two Witnesess!!!! Pray Prophet Joe that Yahweh/Yehovah will give you and Randy the strength to do the final part of your mission to mankind!! Your reward will be great in the Kingdom Prophet Joe and Yeshua will make you his right hand man to rule over all humanity for all eternity!!!!!

    Praise Yahweh/Yehovah!!!

    Blessings to all future rulers in Yahweh/Yehovah’s soon coming Kingdom,

    Jesus Santos

  5. Steven Smith

    Great article this week brother. This has been sort long time in coming but YeHoVaH is loyal in sending an understanding of what going on with His plan. It is always in hindsight that the Spirit reveals things to us. Even in the Apostle’s day. It is inspiring to see this pattern at work among us today
    Sometimes all we can do is just wait on YeHoVaH to reveal what He doing . Been one hell of a go since 2020 for me and know others had it just as bad, but very grateful for this understanding today. Praise YeHoVaH and thank you Joseph and everyone behind the scenes around SM
    Shabbat Shalom to everyone this week from NS Canada

  6. Jim H.

    Thank you for bringing this information forward. As we were discussing yesterday at our gathering, YHVH will bring forward what we need to know and understand in His own good time. We can speculate about things, read things, think we understand them, and then one day something happens, like someone says, “Let’s look up that word”, and all of the sudden a new revelation occurs!

    The secret things belong to Him but He reveals them in His own timing, as we have need to understand.

    I have a request, as I have been warning people we gather with about how essential it is to keep the coming Sabbatical year. I am to have a meeting with one of the elders to cover this subject this month. We meet in homes for 3 weeks a month and then have a Community gathering for those who want to be part of a larger study group once a month.

    The same issues keep coming up when I push the need for this information to be brought out to the group (groups):
    1) How do we know its the right year?
    2) Isn’t that what we do only when we are in the Land?

    I have studied a number of things you’ve written about the years and agree with your conclusions. But I like to have evidence, factual or circumstantial, to back up my statements. The tombstones are a critical piece of information but the foundation of many of these is dependent on the year the Temple was destroyed by the Romans, at least as I understand it.

    When it comes right down to it, it seems to me one must decide on destruction occurring in either 68, 69, or 70 AD. In the Christian, and probably Catholic, Churches, it seems most accept 70 AD. If we accept that the destruction occurred during a Sabbatical year (one of the above three years), a conclusion can be drawn a Sabbatical year had to have occurred in either 2021, 2022, or will occur in 2023. If I (we) didn’t observe one in 2021 or 2022, we should certainly be observing one in 2023.

    My request is for the link of the video, or podcast, Nehemiah did with you on the subject of the Sabbatical years. I believe it was done in 2017. I know it was in a Newsletter not too long ago, but I am not able to find it now. In it, I believe you mentioned a statement made by Rashi proved your point related to the year of the destruction of the Temple and therefore of the Sabbatical years. I may have that wrong but do believe the information in the link is beneficial to the information I want to present.

    If you have additional information on the tombstones, I’d also be interested in any links to that. I have the link to the video covering 8 or some other amount of them. I apologize for the request as I know you are very busy but perhaps someone else has that information and can provide a link.

    My response to the 2nd objection is simply that Moses wrote in Deut. 30:1-4 after all these things have come upon His people, both the curse and the blessing, and we return and obey, He will remember the covenant and regather His people to the Land. People will argue about anything but all we can do is put the Word out there and see if it takes root.

    I’m sorry to have missed your trip through Michigan earlier. I’m not sure if information was put out about your schedule, probably was but I just missed it.

    Is there a certain website location where your speaking schedule can be viewed? I’m not sure this would be real beneficial as it seems you are sort of flying by the seat of your pants in many cases, though I do understand why. Many who could help get the message out simply do not seem to want to make commitments to allow this message to come forward.

    I’ve seen people’s faces change immediately upon mention of your name. It is so sad they think they get to determine whom Elohim should send to speak to them about His ways, and it must be someone who will not clash with their own personality! He tests the hearts and we all should be aware it will be done the way He wants to do so! He didn’t ask for our input!

    Thank you Joe, and for all those who are supporting various aspects of your work, for all you do! I’ve been challenged greatly by what you bring forward that YHVH has given you!

    • Anon

      1) How do we know its the right year? -The Sabbatical year of 701 B.C. (count forward by 7s) and the Jubilee year of 700 (count forward by 49s) of 2 Kings 19:29 are proof-positive through Assyrian chronology. Start counting and you will arrive at 2023 as the Sabbatical year and 2045 as the Jubilee year.

      2) Isn’t that what we do only when we are in the Land? -Leviticus 25:2 is a time marker that indicates when they came into the Land in 1337 B.C., it would be a Sabbath year. Read Leviticus 19:23-37 and know that the laws are for everyone, whether in the Land or not.

      Hebrew Voices #95 – 2300 Days of Hell

  7. Anon

    Lev 26:33  And I will scatter you among the nations, and will draw out a sword (chereb from charab/chareb) after you. And your land shall be waste (H8077 shemamah/shimamah), and your cities waste (H2723 chorbah from choreb a form of chereb from charab/chareb).

    H8077 shemamah/shimamah:
    B) (ShMM) ac: ? co: ? ab: Desolate: A wind blowing over the land pulls the moisture out of the ground drying it up, making a place of ruin or desert. One in horror or in astonishment is one dried up in the inside.
    Nf1) (ShM-MH) – Desolate: [freq. 58] |kjv: desolate, waste| {H8077}

    H2723 chorbah:
    2199) (HhRB) ac: Waste co: Sword ab: ?: [from: rh – heat]
    Nf1) (HhR-BH) – Waste: [freq. 50] |kjv: waste, desolate, desert, decayed, dry land, dry ground| {H2723, H2724}