News Letter 5857-035
The 5th Year of the 4th Sabbatical Cycle
The 26th year of the 120th Jubilee Cycle
The 16th day of the 9th month 5857 years after the creation of Adam
The 4th Sabbatical Cycle after the 119th Jubilee Cycle
The Sabbatical Cycle of Sword, Famines, and Pestilence
1786 Days until the Two Witnesses
506 Days into the 2300 Days Started May 31st, 2020
October 23, 2021
Shabbat Shalom Royal Family of Yehovah,
Shabbat Zoom Meeting
There are many people in need of fellowship and who are sitting at home on the Sabbath with no one to talk to or debate with. I want to encourage all of you to join us on Shabbat, and to invite others to come and join us as well. If the time is not convenient then you can listen to the teaching and the midrash after on our youtube channel.
What are we doing and why do we teach this way?
We are going to discuss both sides of an issue and then let you choose. It is the work of the Ruach (Spirit) to direct and to teach you.
The medieval commentator Rashi wrote that the Hebrew word for wrestle (avek) implies that Jacob was “tied”, for the same word is used to describe knotted fringes in a Jewish prayer shawl, the tzitzityot. Rashi says, “thus is the manner of two people who struggle to overthrow each other, that one embraces the other and knots him with his arms”.
Our intellectual wrestling has been replaced by a different kind of struggle. We are Wrestling with Yehovah as we grapple with His Word. It is an intimate act, symbolizing a relationship in which Yehovah and I and you are bound together. My wrestling is a struggle to discover what Yehovah expects of us, and we are “tied” to the One who assists us in that struggle.
Today, many say Israel means “Champion of God”, or better — the “Wrestler of God”.
Our Torah sessions each Shabbat teach you and encouraged you to constantly challenge, question, argue against, as well as view alternative views and explanations of the Word. In other words, we are to “wrestle with the Word” to get to the truth. Jews worldwide believe that you need to wrestle with the Word and constantly challenge Dogma, Theology, and views or else you will never get to the Truth.
We are not like most churches where “The preacher talks and everyone listens.” We encourage everyone to participate, to question and to contribute what they know on the subject being discussed. We want you to be a champion wrestler of the Word of Yehovah. We want you to wear the title of Israel, knowing that you not only know but are capable to explain why you know the Torah to be true with logic and facts.
We have a few rules though. Let others talk and listen. There is no discussion about UFO’s Nephilim, Vaccines or conspiracy-type subjects. We have people from around the world with different world views. Not everyone cares who is the President of any particular country. Treat each other with respect as Fellow wrestlers of the word. Some of our subjects are hard to understand and require you to be mature and if you do not know, then listen to gain knowledge and understanding and hopefully wisdom. The very things you are commanded to ask Yehovah for and He gives to those who ask.
Jas 1:5 But if any of you lacks wisdom, let him ask of God, who gives to all liberally and with no reproach, and it shall be given to him.
We hope you can invite those who want to keep Torah to come and join us by hitting the link below. It is almost like a Torah teaching fellowship talk show with people from around the world taking part and sharing their insights and understandings.
We start off with some music and then some prayers and it’s as though you were sitting around the kitchen back in Newfoundland having a cup of coffee and all of us enjoying each other’s company. I hope you will grace us with your company someday.
Sabbath October 23, 2021, the room will be open at 12:30 PM Eastern with singing and prayers until about 1:15 PM. You are all welcome to join and watch. It is not recorded. We will have our afternoon service after this. You are welcome to come and join us before during and after we are off the air.
We look forward to you joining our family and getting to know us as we get to know you.
Joseph Dumond is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.
Topic: Joseph Dumond’s Personal Meeting Room
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Septennial Torah Portion
If you go to Torah Portion at our archived section, you can then go to the 5th year which is the 5th year of the Sabbatical Cycle, the one we are in now, as we state at the top of every News Letter. There you can scroll down to October 22, 2021, and see that this Shabbat we could very well be midrashing about
1 Kings 17-18
If you missed last week’s exciting discoveries as we studied that section you can go and watch past Shabbats on our media section.
Aaron Lipkin asked me to share this invitation with you all.
Joshua’s Altar Online Course: “The Place I Will Choose”
Join us for an exciting voyage of Bible and Archaeology! For the first time, a full online course about Joshua’s Altar on Mt. Ebal.
For the first time since the discovery of the Altar in 1980, we will conduct a 5-lesson course with the best scholars on this topic.
Join Archaeologists Dr. Shay Bar, Dr. Scott Stripling, Dr. Ralph Hawkins, Zvi Koenigsberg and Aaron Lipkin as they share their knowledge and unique perspective of the Altar.
The lectures will be broadcasted on Zoom every Sunday beginning October 31 at 1 PM CT.
Every lecture will be followed by a Q&A session.
Can’t make it? no worries, the lectures will be recorded and shared via a private YouTube link.
Special offer for early birds: Free download of “The Divine Choice” – a guided tour of Joshua’s Altar
The Sightedmoon is now on Radio
RPN RADYO RONDA BATAC 639khz | OCTOBER 17, 2021
RPN RADYO RONDA BATAC 639khz | OCTOBER 17, 2021
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ACUBENE HELPING HANDS (ILOCOS HEBREW FAMILY)
with Pastor RAFFY and Pastor FRANK
OCTOBER 17, 2021 | CALL AND TEXT US: 09065079386
We are pleased and thrilled to announce that we are now going to be broadcasting regularly twice a week on the radio from the Philippines. This station is using FaceBook as the means by which you can tune in to them and learn Torah from brethren. It is done in the native language to reach all of the Philippines.
I want to encourage all of you who know Filipinos around the world to tune in twice a week and begin to learn and understand. Write questions and take part in the teachings. If you are in the Philippines then let your family and friends know. You can help this work just by sharing and having others share and like the teachings being done here. Please also say hello on Facebook in the comment section.
If I Am A Man of God
There are many of you out there who concede and admit that I may very well be a prophet. You state that I have indeed a gift for understanding the Sabbatical and Jubilee years and that what I have shared here at sightedmoon.com must have come from Yehovah. Hmmm.
Twice Elijah asked, “If I am a man of God.” Dare I repeat the rest of what Elijah said?
If I am indeed a prophet then where is the respect for this office? Why do you not heed my warnings? Why do you dismiss and argue with me week in and week out? If I am a man of Yehovah then why do you not listen?
Many of you stand there cheering me on while at the same time you have stones in your hands to throw at the drop of a hat. Some of you will only support this work IF I say what is pleasing to your own standards and when I don’t you withhold your support.
Isaiah one of the Great Prophets whom I have learned so much from was sawn in two by Israel. Those he was sent to warn on behalf of Yehovah. Are you any different?
Many of you want to support those false prophets that preach to you all you want to hear about the vaccine, anti-vaccine and Chemtrails and flat-earth and every other witches brew of concocted wives tails.
The Hebrew Roots movement or the Messianic movement to which you all claim to be part of is actually the “mixianic” movement because of how it mixes into Torah all these propagandist theories and lies and false information and it is taken as the god-given absolute truth.
Jer 23:15 So Jehovah of Hosts says this concerning the prophets: Behold, I will feed them wormwood, and make them drink poisonous water; for from the prophets of Jerusalem ungodliness has gone forth into all the land.
Jer 23:16 So says Jehovah of Hosts, Do not listen to the words of the prophets who prophesy to you. They make you vain; they speak a vision from their own heart, not out of the mouth of Jehovah.
Jer 23:17 They still say to those who despise Me, Jehovah has said, You shall have peace! And they say to everyone who walks after the stubbornness of his own heart, No evil shall come on you!
Jer 23:18 For who has stood in the counsel of Jehovah, and hears His Word? Who has listened to His Word and heard it?
Jer 23:19 Behold, the tempest of Jehovah has gone forth in fury, a whirling tempest. It shall whirl on the head of the wicked.
Jer 23:20 The anger of Jehovah shall not return, until He has done and until He has set up the purposes of His heart; in later days you shall understand it perfectly.
Jer 23:21 I have not sent these prophets, yet they ran; I have not spoken to them, yet they prophesied.
Jer 23:22 But if they had stood in My wisdom and had caused My people to hear My Words, then they would have turned them from their evil way and from the evil of their doings.
You have set up false prophets amongst you. You listen to their false messages and repeat them verbatim.
Ungodliness is amongst you, those who claim to be Torah observant. You mix the Torah, with lies. This is what we have been sharing with you about the word Pharmakia. We have said it week after week and yet you still do not get it. It is not the mixing of chemicals to get a drug that is sin. It is what you say and do that comes out of your mouth and through your keyboards that makes you defiled.
Mar 7:15 There is nothing from outside a man which entering into him can defile him. But the things which come out of him, those are the ones that defile the man.
Mar 7:16 If anyone has ears to hear, let him hear.
Mar 7:17 And when He had entered into the house away from the crowd, His disciples asked Him concerning the parable.
Mar 7:18 And He said to them, Are you also without understanding? Do you not perceive that whatever enters into the man from outside cannot defile him,
Mar 7:19 because it does not enter into his heart, but into the belly, and goes out into the waste-bowl, purifying all food?
Mar 7:20 And He said, That which comes out of the man is what defiles the man.
Mar 7:21 For from within, out of the heart of men, proceed evil thoughts, adulteries, fornications, murders,
Mar 7:22 thefts, covetousness, wickedness, deceit, lasciviousness, an evil eye, blasphemy, pride, foolishness:
Mar 7:23 All these evil things pass out from inside and defile the man.
I can go to anyone screaming anti-vaccine and who are said to be brethren on Facebook and scroll back through their feed for the past two years. COVID began to be known in January of 2020. That is when it began to make the news. And all you will see will be all about how COVID was fake and “THEY” are manipulating us, do not give in. Then later about the vaccine and the horrors from it. Or if they are American all about fake voting and the fraudulent election.
And yet these same people will say that I am a prophet. If I am a prophet then why do most of you not repost the newsletters to your Facebook page? Why do most of you not take a section of the NewsLetter teaching and drill down on it and explain it to your Facebook followers? If I am a prophet, then why do most of you abhor mentioning anything we have posted or any of our videos for the past 16 years? It is you who say I am a prophet, and yet you will not promote any of my books about the Sabbatical or Jubilee and the prophecies they reveal. Why is that?
This must be what Daniel warned us was coming for our time with people pretending to support you.
Dan 11:32 And he will ruin by flattery those who do evil against the covenant. But the people who know their God will be strong and will work.
Dan 11:33 And those who understand among the people shall teach many; yet they shall fall by the sword, and by flame, by exile, and spoil, for days.
Dan 11:34 And when they stumble, they shall be helped with a little help, but many will join them, with hypocrisy.
Dan 11:35 And many of those who understand shall stumble, to refine and purge them, and to make white, to the time of the end. Because it is still for the appointed time.
You all should know by now that we are just 11 years away from the end when Satan is to be locked away in 2033. If you have been reading this newsletter for any length of time you should know this. We are about to start the year 2022. 2033-2022 = 11 years.
And you should know, had you read the newsletter for the past month, how the 10 days of Awe begin in 2024. So if I am a prophet as you say, then why are you wasting all this time preaching antivaccine and not saying a peep about the end of this age?
Because you can’t see just how far down that rabbit hole you have gone and instead of coming back to my voice all you want to do is argue and curse me out. So stay where you are then. Keep reading Archie and Bettie comics and forget about studying for the most important final examination in the history of mankind.
Why do I bother week after week? Do I love to argue with you? Do I like the abuse you give to this prophet if indeed you are correct? Why do I care whether you live or die? Am I really just arrogant as some of you say?
Eze 2:1 And He said to me, Son of man, stand on your feet, and I will speak to you.
Eze 2:2 And the Spirit entered into me when He spoke to me, and set me on my feet, so that I heard Him who spoke to me.
Eze 2:3 And He said to me, Son of man, I am sending you to the sons of Israel, to the nations, the rebelling ones who have rebelled against Me; they and their fathers have sinned against Me, to this day.
Eze 2:4 And the sons are stiff of face, and hard of heart. I am sending you to them; and you shall say to them, So says the Lord Jehovah.
Eze 2:5 And they, whether they will hear or whether they will forbear; for they are a rebellious house. Yea, they shall know that there has been a prophet among them.
Eze 2:6 And you, son of man, do not be afraid of them, and of their words, though briers and thorns are with you, and you dwell among scorpions. Do not be afraid of their words, nor frightened by their faces, though they are a rebellious house.
Eze 2:7 And you shall speak My Words to them, whether they will hear or whether they will forbear, for they arerebellious.
Eze 2:8 But you, son of man, hear what I am saying to you. Do not be rebellious like that rebellious house. Open your mouth and eat what I am giving you.
Eze 2:9 And I looked, and behold! A hand was extended to me; and lo, a roll of a book was in it.
Eze 2:10 And He spread it before me; and it was written on the face and the back. And written on it wereweepings, and mourning, and woe.
Eze 3:1 And He said to me, Son of man, eat what you find. Eat this roll, and go speak to the house of Israel.
Eze 3:2 So I opened my mouth, and He caused me to eat that roll.
Eze 3:3 And He said to me, Son of man, cause your belly to eat, and fill your belly with this roll that I give you. Then I ate it; and in my mouth it was like honey for sweetness.
Eze 3:4 And He said to me, Son of man, go! Go up to the house of Israel and speak to them with My Words.
Eze 3:5 For you are not sent to a people of a deep lip and of a difficult language, but to the house of Israel;
Eze 3:6 not to many people of a deep lip and of a difficult language, whose words you cannot hear. Surely, if I had sent you to them, they would have listened to you.
Eze 3:7 But the house of Israel will not listen to you, for they will not listen to Me; for all the house of Israel arestrong of forehead and hard of heart.
Eze 3:8 Behold, I have made your face strong against their faces and your forehead strong against their foreheads.
Eze 3:9 I have made your forehead as an adamant harder than flint. Do not be bowed down by their faces, though they are a rebellious house.
Eze 3:10 And He said to me, Son of man, receive all My Words which I shall speak to you in your heart, and hear with your ears.
Eze 3:11 And go! Go to those of the captivity, to the sons of your people, and speak to them, and tell them, So says the Lord Jehovah; whether they will hear or whether they will forbear.
Eze 3:12 And the Spirit lifted me up, and I heard behind me a sound of a great rushing, saying, Blessed be the glory of Jehovah from His place.
The Torah is as sweet as honey in my mouth as I read it and study it. The more I learn the more awesome it becomes. I am thrilled to have this blessing to learn and understand and to be shown the marvellous things Yehovah has shown me by the understanding of the Sabbatical and Jubilee years. But then I have to share what I have discovered or what has been revealed to me, with all of you. And that is when it becomes bitter in my stomach. When I have to deal with you who are armchair know it alls. Yes, we do know who it is that is arrogant.
So, you brethren can stomp your feet all you want, You can make your snide remarks and belittle me till your heart’s desire. You can withhold your donations from this ministry and think you are punishing me. I have a collection of knives taken from my back which the “brethren” have put there. But be mindful of the day that the prophet says the rest of what Elijah said. Yes, be mindful of the day you make fun of his bald head or the other belittling you make of the office Yehovah gives out to mere men.
Of all those arguing with Jeremiah, of all those who said Jeremiah was wrong, not one lived through the Babylonian attack. Not one. Where will Yehovah judge you in the days directly in front of us? Are you doing His work and supporting those who are? Or are constantly badgering them and belittling them and their message to others. Are you holding up their arms or are you throwing the stones?
As Michael Rood used to often say, “We will see you when the smoke clears.” 2024 is now just two years away. Will we see you on the other side?
The Mark of the Beast
We have had to repeat this once again because many of you are now clamouring that the vaccine is now the mark of the Beast. Again I ask how many people are getting vaccinated in the head?
Rev 13:16 And it causes all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark on their right hand, or in their foreheads,
Rev 13:17 even that not any might buy or sell except those having the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of its name.
Rev 13:18 Here is the wisdom. Let him having reason count the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man. And its number is six hundred and sixty-six.
When we first began this work back in 2005, one of the very first articles we posted was the Mark of Yehovah and the Mark of the Beast. We have not changed our position on this it is still the same. To know the Mark of the Beast you must first know the Mark of Yehovah.
The Mark of Yehovah and the Mark of the Beast. You can read it there.
14 years later in 2019 we learned of the Bismillah or Bismallah and we shared it with you then and again recently. So I again now share it with you so you can learn how the Bismallah lines up and contrasts with the Mark of Yehovah.
Having said that, some are trying to say is the mark of the beast is the vaccine. It is not the vaccine.
Since Stephen Flurry has taken over from his father, I have seen a steady decline in the value of the Trumpet Magazine. It grieves me to see this as it was one of the best prophecy places to go to. But now all Stephen talks about as a mixianic believer, are conspiracy teachings mixed in with Torah. And that is the Pharmakia spoken of in Revelation.
Europa is the woman who rides the beast in mythology. And Europe is this Great End-Time Babylon the Bible speaks of. There is coming a time when we will not be able to buy or sell unless we have the approval of those in authority. Yes, we have known of this for many years.
Then BitCoin came out and you can have value digitally. Then China created their own Chinese coin. Now the USA dollar is so deep in debt that it is about to fall. Inflation is out of control as we will show you in a moment.
Vaccine passports were only the beginning.
BY DANIEL DI SANTO • OCTOBER 12
Europe’s vaccine passport was only a “precursor” to a fully digital ID system for every European Union citizen, stated military technology company Thales Group in a July 27 blog post. Working with the European Commission, Thales intends to produce an EU-wide “digital wallet” within the next 10 years. In the wrong hands, such a powerful tool could lead to increased surveillance and control.
Thales is a French company that develops technology for militaries in Europe and around the world. In a blog post titled “How Digital ID Can Help Citizens Access Government Services From Anywhere,” Thales stated: “In June this year, the European Union took a step toward one of the largest digital identity projects ever when it proposed a framework for a Europe-wide digital identity. This would be available for all EU citizens, residents and businesses in the EU.”
How does the EU plan to reach this goal? “So-called digital ‘vaccination passports’ will play a key role in enabling citizens to access all manner of services and will act as a precursor to the rollout of mobile digital ID,” stated Thales.
The EU plans to begin making this so-called “digital wallet” available as early as next year.
All the user’s personal information will be available through a smartphone-based application. They will be able to open bank accounts, access medical records and government services, apply for loans, and sign real-estate contracts. The EU may also integrate the digital euro, currently under development, for instant payments. The European Commission even plans to use this app to classify the trustworthiness of websites and mobile applications.
Much of the response to the EU’s announcement was positive. Others, however, warned that placing faith in the government is not a solution to data privacy issues with Big Tech companies like Apple and Google.
“Entrusting our digital lives to the government instead of Facebook and Google is jumping out of the frying pan into the fire,” stated Member of European Parliament Patrick Breyer of Germany.
It is not a stretch to imagine how this power could be misused. A citizen with bad credit could be restricted from making certain purchases or opening a new bank account. Somebody who expressed critical views of the government could have his access to certain media platforms revoked or be prevented from registering his business under the EU’s list of trusted companies. With a few lines of code, entire groups of people, such as the unvaccinated, could be classified, tracked and systematically excluded from society. Not just in their home country, but across all of Europe.
Much of the needed infrastructure is already in place: As of 2019, smartphone usage in West European countries was at least 70 percent, according to Pew Research Center. A full 87 percent of Dutch reported owning a smartphone, along with 80 percent of Spanish, 78 percent of Germans and 75 percent of French.
Of course, these changes will not be immediate. But the speed at which the vaccine passport was implemented shows that the EU’s digital wallet could come into being very quickly, radically changing Europe.
The Trumpet often discusses Revelation 17:10, which reveals that six resurrections of the Holy Roman Empire have risen and fallen in Europe. This scripture also reveals that there remains a seventh and final resurrection: “And there are seven kings: five are fallen, and one is, and the other is not yet come; and when he cometh, he must continue a short space.” This brief resurrection of the Holy Roman Empire is in the process of forming now. The “king” who will lead it is described in Daniel 8:23, which calls him “a king of fierce countenance, and understanding dark sentences.”
The title “king” may sound like it’s addressing a ruler from a bygone time. But it isn’t. In his booklet A Strong German Leader Is Imminent, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry explains, “This soon-coming ruler could literally be called a king. Even if he is not, the Bible gives him that label. When the Bible talks about a king, in most cases it’s saying that this is not a democratic government. Even if he doesn’t have that title, he is going to lead like a king. This vision in Daniel shows that the European empire is about to become a lot more authoritative.”
This “king” will be a modern strongman. The EU digital wallet, along with similar technology like the digital euro, could help cement his power.
Coronavirus is only the beginning. Soon, Europe will find itself radically changed as a result of its authoritarian response to the virus. Our free booklet A Strong German Leader Is Imminent explains all about this coming strongman and his king-like rule. Also read “Coronavirus and the Holy Roman Empire,” by Mr. Flurry, to understand how the response to the virus has opened the way for Europe to be transformed.
We also know and have shown you how China already uses this type of system to monitor and control all of its citizens. It is coming and you need to plan. This is going to be implemented in 2022 according to this article. Are you ready?
In 2008 I was going around warning about the coming stock market collapse. I was looking at the Sabbatical years at the time. We are seeing a similar thing again now.
Sept 15, 2008, Leman Brothers stock tanked 93% in one day. They filed for bankruptcy which was the biggest in US history with over $600 Billion. This triggered a run on money market funds that the Fed countered by promising to guarantee money market fund assets. The day after Lehman’s bankruptcy filing, the Fed bailed out AIG, and a few weeks later, Congress passed the Troubled Asset Relief Program (“TARP”), which allocated $700 billion to stabilizing the financial system. And then there was the Bears Stearns failing.
Now, this past week we have something else brewing.
As Chinese property developer Evergrande Group lumbers from one missed bond payment deadline to the next, its troubles continue to reverberate across financial markets. On Tuesday, Oct. 12, Evergrande skipped USD 148 million in interest payments to external bondholders after missing a USD 83.5 million interest payment in late September. By Wednesday, Oct. 13, the yield on the ICE BofA Asian Dollar High Yield Corporate China Issuers Index (where the property sector accounts for more than three fourths of issues) spiked to a 10-year high of 24.3%, up from 7.8% at the end of 2021, as investors rushed to offload bonds tied to the country’s real estate industry.
Those fears were stoked further on Oct. 4, when luxury-home developer Fantasia Holdings became the next Chinese real estate company to default, skipping out on a USD 206 million payment to bondholders. Unlike Evergrande, Fantasia had been widely viewed as having the cash needed to meet its financial obligations; as such, the company’s failure to pay came as a shock to many. The news was followed this week by requests from a further three Chinese players–Sinic Holdings Group, Modern Land, and Xinyuan Real Estate–to delay upcoming interest payments or restructure their repayment schedules.
And then we read the following this week as well.
Statistics Canada says the annual pace of inflation picked up in September to reach its highest level since February 2003.
The agency says its consumer price index in September was up 4.4 per cent compared with a year ago.
The reading compared with a year-over-year increase of 4.1 per cent in August.
Driving most of the increase were prices at the pumps as consumers paid 32.8 per cent more last month for gasoline than in September 2020.
And then I was sent this letter from Hard Assets.
The United States Department of Labor informs us:
September consumer prices trampolined to the highest annual level in 13 years… to 5.4%.Energy prices are 1.3% costlier — and nearly 25% costlier since September last.
Eating costs 0.9% more since last month — and 4.6% for the year.
Eggs and various meats are 10.5% dearer this year. Specific meats — beef — are 17.6% dearer this year.
If it is explanation you seek, Mr. Brian Crosby of Traub Capital Partners is the man you want:
Consumer prices continue to rise, particularly as demand driven by people returning to post-vaccination life outstrips supply that is increasingly constrained by logistics and labor shortages.
Escalating prices are so extravagant, the Social Security Administration is increasing its cost-of-living adjustment 5.9% next year.
That is its largest annual increase in nearly 40 years. For the past 10, 1.65% has been about par.
Could Inflation Actually Be 14%?
We hadn’t the heart to consult Mr. John Williams’ ShadowStats site.
That is because this fellow scatters the statistical fogs — the statistical fogs government throws up to conceal true inflation.
We feared a true accounting would fluster us, wobble us and diminish our already diminished spirits.
We therefore assigned a minion the task. From him, by way of Mr. Williams, we learn:
The official rate runs to 5.4%, it is true. Yet if government number-manglers gauged inflation as they did in 1990, the true inflation rate goes at 9%.
And if they gauged inflation by 1980’s rules?
Consumer inflation races to a galloping and dollar-devouring 14% — approximately.
The Price of Victory
In 1981, still going by 1980’s rules, inflation ran to 15%. To scotch the inflationary menace, Paul Volcker manhandled the federal funds rate to an astounding 20%.
He won his war, he vanquished his Hitler… though at horrific cost. The casualty lists were atrocious.
The ensuing 1981–82 recession was — in fact — the greatest economic tremble since the Great Depression.
Volcker’s devastating conflict nonetheless cleared the way for subsequent boom years.
Now come forward…
If John Williams gives the true inflation rate, today’s 14% rate approaches 1981’s 15%.
What if Inflation Isn’t “Transitory”?
Unlike 1981… today’s federal funds rate squats near zero. There it will likely remain deep into calendar year 2022.
A question then dangles in the air:
If inflation does not prove “transitory”… as Mr. Powell believes it will… and gallops on and on instead… how will he get his hands on it?
“The key risk here is that shortages persist for longer than we anticipate and prices rise more substantially,” warns Capital Economics’ Neil Shearing.
“We prepare for probabilities and eventualities,” says JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon. “And,” he continues, “one of those probabilities is that [inflation] might go higher than people think.”
Dissension in the Ranks
Even Federal Reserve officials are beginning to cough behind their hands, anxiously, nervously. They begin to harbor severe doubts concerning the “transitory” theory.
For example, Mr. Raphael Bostic, base commander of the Federal Reserve’s Atlanta garrison:
It is becoming increasingly clear that the feature of this episode that has animated price pressures — mainly the intense and widespread supply chain disruptions — will not be brief. Data from multiple sources point to these lasting longer than most initially thought. By this definition, then, the forces are not transitory.
We hazard the business would require a severe manipulation of the federal funds rate — upward.
But of course our friend Powell cannot severely manipulate the federal funds rate upward.
Trapped at Zero
Even a return to historically average rates — perhaps 5% — would send the economy heaping down, wrecked and collapsed.
Mr. Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice:
The problem, however, between today and the 1970s is the massive debt and leverage levels in the U.S. economy. Thus, any significant rise in rates almost immediately leads to recessionary spats in the economy.
And a 20% rate? The very heavens would fall.
We must also consider long-term rates…
The United States groans under debts multiple times 1981’s debts. Servicing today’s $29 trillion debt would fracture the spine.
It is only endurable now because of rates that scarcely register.
But inflation cannot be allowed to go amok, to trample its way through the dollar.
What will Mr. Powell do if inflation endures?
He may find himself hanging from the hooks of a mighty dilemma…
Choke inflation… which will choke the economy… or let inflation go… which will flatten the dollar… and ultimately the economy.
But we must consider this one possibility: Deeply entrenched economic forces may take this poor fellow down from his pointy hook…
A Different World
The aforesaid Lance Roberts:
Interest rates rose during three previous periods in history. During the economic/inflationary spike in the early 1860s and again during the “Golden Age” from 1900–1929. The most recent period was during the prolonged manufacturing cycle in the 1950s and ’60s. That cycle followed the end of World War II where the U.S. was the global manufacturing epicenter…
Today, the U.S. is no longer the manufacturing epicenter of the world. Labor and capital flow to the lowest-cost providers to effectively export inflation from the U.S., and deflation gets imported. Technology and productivity gains ultimately suppress labor and wage growth rates over time…
This is not the situation presently obtaining:
During the current period, real economic growth remains lackluster. In addition, real unemployment remains high, with millions of individuals simply no longer counted or resorting to part-time work to make ends meet…
One crucial difference is the rate of population growth, which, as opposed to the Depression era, has been on a steady and consistent decline since the 1950s. This decline in population growth and fertility rates will potentially lead to further economic complications as the baby boomer generation migrates into retirement and becomes a net drag on financial infrastructure.
No Upward Pressure on Rates
Must we conclude, then, Mr. Roberts, that rates will remain squelched?:
Interest rates are ultimately a reflection of economic growth, inflation and monetary velocity. Therefore, given the globe is awash in deflation, caused by weak economic output and exceedingly low levels of monetary velocity, there is no pressure to push rates sustainably higher…
Rates rise in conjunction with more substantial levels of economic growth. Such is because more substantial growth leads to higher wages and inflation, causing rates to rise accordingly…
Today, despite trillions of dollars of interventions, zero interest rates and numerous bailouts, the economy has yet to gain any real traction, particularly on “Main Street”…
The catalysts needed to create the economic growth required to drive interest rates substantially higher, as we saw previous to 1980, are not available today. Such will be the case for decades to come.
The Good and the Bad
Here then is the positive news, assuming this analysis holds the water in:
Inflation will go back in its cage once fractured supply chains undergo relinking. Interest rates will not go skyshooting. They will not send the economy careening along opposite trajectories.
But with the honey come the aloes, with the sweet comes the bitter…
The future may instead be a marathon run of struggling growth, of stagnating incomes, of economic languishing.
That is, we may confront a future not of sudden collapse but of gray and twilight. Of habitual malaise…
Of a dank and drizzly November… month upon month… year upon year.
Which is worse?
Managing Editor, The Daily Reckoning
And Forbes wrote the following back in May 3, 2021
The U.S. national debt is rising at a pace never seen in the history of America. With a current debt exceeding $28 trillion – an increase of nearly $5 trillion in 14 short months, Washington is now debating an infrastructure bill with a price tag close to $2 trillion. Even without this additional spending, the national debt will approach $89 trillion by 2029 according to USDebtClock.org. This would put the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio at 277%, surpassing Japan’s current 272% debt-to-GDP ratio. The good news is that the U.S. economy grew by 6.4% in the first quarter of the year. The bad news is that, after we return to normal, future economic growth will not be as robust, primarily due to the burgeoning debt.
We have been showing you for the past month if not since 2005 that Climate change and the extreme weather going on around the world is directly from Yehovah. But far too many can’t understand how a benevolent God would do that to His people who are praising and praying to Him every day. These are the same ones who say they love Jesus. But they are also the same ones you do not have to obey the law.
Then there are those who say it is not climate change nor global warming but it is this or that. Anything but Yehovah. So they do not and cannot see Yehovah’s hand in any of this.
Let me now share with you what Science is showing us. Actually, the Science is showing us what it is not.
Prof. Katharine Hayhoe@KHayhoe
Climate scientist, Chief Scientist
. in TX. Professor, pastor’s wife & mom. UN Champion of the Earth. Tweets
When we see climate changing, we don’t automatically jump on the human bandwagon, case closed. No, we rigorously examine and test all other reasons why climate could be changing: the sun, volcanoes, natural cycles, even something we don’t know yet: could they be responsible? ..
Could it be the sun?
No: the sun’s energy has been going down at the very time that the average temperature of the planet continues to rise. For more info, read: skepticalscience.com/solar-activity and no, even a Grand Minimum wouldn’t save us. See: realclimate.org/index.php/arch
Could it be volcanoes?
No: though a big eruption emits a lot of soot and particulates, these temporarily cool the planet. On average, all geologic activity, put together, emits only about 10% of the heat-trapping gases that humans do. For more, read: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.102
Could it be orbital cycles? Are we just getting warmer after the last ice age?
No: warming from the last ice age peaked 1000s of yrs ago, and the next event on our geologic calendar was another ice age: was, until the industrial revolution, that is. Read: people.clas.ufl.edu/jetc/files/Tze
Could it be natural cycles internal to the climate system, like El Nino?
No: those cycles simply move heat around the climate system, mostly back and forth between the atmosphere and ocean. They cannot CREATE heat. So if they were responsible for atmospheric warming, ….
. then the heat content of another part of the climate system wd have to be going down, while the heat content of the atmosphere was going up. Is this what we see?
Could it be cosmic rays?
How about the magnetic pole moving? Planet Niribu? Geoengineering?
The bottom line is this: We’ve known since the work of John Tyndall in the 1850s that CO2 absorbs and re-radiates infrared energy, and Eunice Foote was the first to suggest that higher CO2 levels would lead to a warmer planet, in 1856. Read it here:
No one – NO ONE – has been able to explain how increasing levels of CO2, CH4 and other heat-trapping gases would NOT raise the temperature of the planet. Yet that must be done first, if we are to consider any other sources as “dominant”.
Moreover, when @RasmusBenestad + I + others examined dozens of published papers (so much for the ‘we are suppressed like Galileo!’ myth) claiming to minimize or eliminate the human role in climate change, guess what we found? Errors in every single one.
So in conclusion: if you don’t think humans are the dominant source of warming, you are making a statement that does not have a single factual or scientific leg to stand on. Yet leaders of science agencies are saying exactly that today. This is the world we live in.
And then to all the Bible thumpers, Professor Hayhoe made the following short video.
Brethren, she has scientifically eliminated all the false myths that many of you spread and I love that. Climate Change is real and I do agree with her. But she has not answered the question which we have answered here. Yehovah is sending the temperatures through the roof. Yehovah and there is no other reason. He is doing this because we will not obey.