Join Our Sabbath Meetings

There are many people in need of fellowship and who are sitting at home on the Sabbath with no one to talk to or debate with. I want to encourage all of you to join us on Shabbat, and to invite others to come and join us as well. If the time is not convenient then you can listen to the teaching and the midrash after on our YouTube channel.

What are we doing and why do we teach this way?

We are going to discuss both sides of an issue and then let you choose. It is the work of the Ruach (Spirit) to direct and to teach you.

The medieval commentator Rashi wrote that the Hebrew word for wrestle (avek) implies that Jacob was “tied”, for the same word is used to describe knotted fringes in a Jewish prayer shawl, the tzitzityot. Rashi says, “thus is the manner of two people who struggle to overthrow each other, that one embraces the other and knots him with his arms”.

Our intellectual wrestling has been replaced by a different kind of struggle. We are wrestling with Yehovah as we grapple with His Word. It is an intimate act, symbolizing a relationship in which Yehovah and you and I are bound together. My wrestling is a struggle to discover what Yehovah expects of us, and we are “tied” to the One who assists us in that struggle.

Today, many say Israel means “Champion of God”, or better — the “Wrestler of God”.

Our Torah sessions each Shabbat teaches you and encourages you to constantly challenge, question, argue against, as well as view alternative views and explanations of the Word. In other words, we are to “wrestle with the Word” to get to the truth. Jews worldwide believe that you need to wrestle with the Word and constantly challenge Dogma, Theology, and views or else you will never get to the Truth.

We are not like most churches where “The preacher talks and everyone listens.” We encourage everyone to participate, to question and to contribute what they know on the subject being discussed. We want you to be a champion wrestler of the Word of Yehovah. We want you to wear the title of Israel, knowing that you not only know but are capable of explaining why you know the Torah to be true with logic and facts.

We have a few rules though. Let others talk and listen. There is no discussion about UFO’s, Nephilim, Vaccines or conspiracy-type subjects. We have people from around the world with different world views. Not everyone cares who is the President of any particular country. Treat each other with respect as fellow wrestlers of the word. Some of our subjects are hard to understand and require you to be mature and if you do not know, then listen to gain knowledge and understanding and hopefully wisdom. The very things you are commanded to ask Yehovah for and He gives to those who ask.

Jas 1:5  But if any of you lacks wisdom, let him ask of God, who gives to all liberally and with no reproach, and it shall be given to him.

We hope you can invite those who want to keep Torah to come and join us by hitting the link below. It is almost like a Torah teaching fellowship talk show with people from around the world taking part and sharing their insights and understandings.

We start off with some music and then some prayers and it’s as though you were sitting around the kitchen back in Newfoundland having a cup of coffee and all of us enjoying each other’s company. I hope you will grace us with your company someday.

Sabbath services begin at 12:30 PM EDT where we will be doing prayers, songs and teaching from this hour.

Shabbat midrash will begin at about 1:15 pm Eastern.

We look forward to you joining our family and getting to know us as we get to know you.

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New Moon Sunday Night?

The new moon is expected to be seen this coming Sunday. Take your family out and see who can see it first after the sunset. Write me in the comments and let us know who saw it first and where you saw it from.

By doing this simple commandment, you will be teaching yourself one of the biggest lessons about the Holy Days. So be a doer and go out and look and learn why nobody can know the day or the hour.

We are in Trouble!!

The 1875–1878 El Niño and the Great Global Drought and Famine

Between 1875 and 1878, the world experienced one of the most catastrophic climate-driven disasters in recorded history — arguably the worst environmental disaster to ever befall humanity. At its heart was an exceptionally powerful and prolonged super El Niño that peaked in 1877–1878. Scientists consider this event among the strongest on record, rivaling or exceeding modern super El Niños such as 1982–83, 1997–98, or 2015–16. It lasted 16–18 months and was dramatically amplified by a record-strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 1877 and unusually warm North Atlantic conditions in 1878. These forces flipped the Pacific from a preceding cool, La Niña-like phase into extreme warming, shattering global monsoon systems.

The result was the Great Global Drought of the 1870s, which struck simultaneously across multiple continents and both hemispheres. Asia was hit hardest: near-total monsoon failures devastated India’s Deccan Plateau and southern regions for multiple seasons, while northern China suffered catastrophic dryness. Brazil’s semiarid Nordeste endured the “Grande Seca,” and droughts ravaged parts of Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Crop failures were total and prolonged — rice, wheat, maize, and other staples collapsed across vast regions. Paleoclimate reconstructions describe this as the most intense and extensive drought in at least the past 800 years in Asia, with comparable severity elsewhere.

The human toll was staggering. The Great Famine of 1876–1878 killed an estimated 30–60 million people worldwide — more than 50 million by the most commonly cited figures — roughly 3–4% of the global population of 1.3–1.4 billion at the time. That death toll would equal at least 250 million people if it occurred today. Breakdowns include 5.5–12 million (or higher) in India, 9.5–13 million (up to 19–30 million in broader estimates) in northern China, and hundreds of thousands to 2 million in Brazil, plus millions more across Africa and other zones. Starvation was worsened by epidemics, mass migrations, and social collapse.

In India, British colonial policies — continued grain exports during shortages, minimal and inhumane relief (such as the punitive “Temple wage” labor camps), and the dismantling of traditional resilience systems — dramatically amplified the crisis. As researcher Deepti Singh has noted, famines are not an inevitable result of drought; deliberate human actions turned a severe climate event into one of history’s greatest tragedies. Historian Mike Davis’s Late Victorian Holocausts powerfully documents how natural catastrophe and imperial mismanagement converged to shape long-term global inequalities. Florence Nightingale described the suffering in India as “such a hideous record of human suffering and destruction the world has never seen before.”

Projected Consequences of the Developing 2026 El Niño, Compounded by Biblical Prophecy of the Two Witnesses (Fall 2026–Fall 2029)

Late 2026 (Onset and Early Build-Up): Early drought risks rise across India, Southeast Asia, Australia, southern/eastern Africa, Brazil’s Nordeste, and northern China, while floods increase in Peru, Ecuador, East Africa, and parts of the western U.S. Global temperatures push 2026 among the warmest on record. Drought initially affects 15–20% of global cropland. Food prices rise 5–10% globally; fuel/energy prices climb 5–8%. The Two Witnesses begin in fall 2026, accelerating dryness. Food insecurity rises for 100–200 million.

2027 (Peak Intensity): Record global heat, with some months potentially exceeding +2°C above pre-industrial. Severe synchronized droughts could cover 25–35%+ of harvested areas as the no-rain period locks in. Crop failures intensify across Asia, Africa, South America, and Australia. Food commodity prices surge 20–50% (rice and wheat potentially doubling in hard-hit regions), with overall food inflation of 15–30%+ in vulnerable countries. Fuel prices rise sharply. Famine and acute food insecurity could threaten 500 million to over 1 billion people, with potential death tolls of 10–30 million in worst-case scenarios. Migration, disease outbreaks, and trillions in economic losses follow.

2028–2029: El Niño fades, but the Three-Year Drought from the Two Witnesses continues. Lingering dryness affects 20–30% of croplands. Food prices stay elevated at 15–40%. Cumulative impacts mount.

2029–2030: The no-rain period ends around fall 2029. Drought eases but ecosystem damage remains. Food prices stabilize 10–25% above 2025 levels. Total famine-related deaths across the period could reach 20–50 million or higher in compounding scenarios. As Deepti Singh warns, enhanced drought risk will threaten food, water, and economic security in vulnerable regions, with effects cascading globally across interconnected systems. International collaboration will be vital.

Modern tools give us better preparation than in 1877, but the convergence of a potential super El Niño with the prophesied Three-Year Drought would still test civilization severely.

These projections are probabilistic, based on current scientific models, historical precedents, and the specified biblical factor. Actual outcomes will depend on the exact strength of the El Niño, human preparedness, international aid coordination, and technological interventions (early warnings, drought-resistant crops, and desalination). Modern monitoring offers far better tools than in the 1870s, yet the scale of a three-year global rain cessation would test civilization in ways never before seen. For the latest official outlooks, consult NOAA, the World Meteorological Organization, or ECMWF updates, and consider theological perspectives alongside scientific ones for a complete picture.

The lack of snow in the Himalayas (Hindu Kush Himalaya or HKH region) is extremely severe right now — a record low for the fourth consecutive year.

The Himalayan Snow Drought — The Water Tower of Asia Is Running Dry

This photo aligns with the latest April 2026 ICIMOD Snow Update Report 2026. It highlights a dramatic decline: snow persistence (how long snow stays on the ground) across the HKH is 27.8% below the long-term average — the lowest in over 20–24 years of monitoring. This continues a worrying multi-year trend of “snow drought.”

Why This Is So Bad

Snowpack acts as the “water tower of Asia”: Seasonal snow slowly melts and feeds rivers through spring and summer. With far less snow accumulated this winter (November 2025–March 2026), the slow-release water supply is critically reduced.

10 out of 12 major river basins are below normal. Sharpest drops include the Mekong (60% below), Tibetan Plateau (>47%), and notable deficits in the Indus, Brahmaputra, Salween, Yellow River, and others. The Ganges basin was one of the few with a slight increase (16%), but overall the region is in deficit.

Compounding factors: Warmer temperatures (elevation-dependent warming) turn potential snow into rain at mid-elevations, accelerate melt of whatever snow does fall, and speed up glacier retreat (already losing ice at double the rate since 2000).

Impacts on Major Rivers and Downstream Areas

The Himalayas feed 12 major river systems (including Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Yangtze, Salween, etc.), supporting drinking water, irrigation, hydropower, and ecosystems for nearly 2 billion people across South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia.

Reduced spring/summer flows: Snowmelt normally provides ~23–25% of annual river runoff (higher in western basins like the Indus). Expect lower river levels, especially early in the melt season, leading to water shortages.

Agriculture and food security: Millions of farmers face drier fields, reduced irrigation, and lower crop yields (rice, wheat, etc.) in the coming months.

Hydropower and energy: Dams and plants reliant on steady flows (common in India, Nepal, Pakistan, China) could see reduced output.

Drinking water and ecosystems: Vanishing springs (already reported in Kashmir), drier soils, and stressed wetlands. Increased risk of wildfires, dust, and heat stress.

Broader risks: Greater reliance on erratic monsoons (which are also becoming more unpredictable). Potential for early water stress turning into drought, plus long-term glacier thinning that worsens future years.

This is not a one-off event but part of a systemic shift under warming — the fourth straight year of below-normal snow. Scientists warn of imminent water shortages this spring/summer if the trend holds.

In the context of the broader 2026 super El Niño (and any overlapping factors like the prophetic no-rain scenario discussed earlier), this Himalayan snow deficit could amplify regional dryness and food/price pressures significantly. Local reports (e.g., Kashmir) already note dry taps and stressed orchards.

For the most current satellite views or basin-specific data, check ICIMOD.org or regional meteorological agencies.

Galápagos in Crisis

El Niño and the Revelation Prophecy of the Seas Turning to Blood

As we shared in last week’s Newsletter (“The 40 Days After Shavuot”), a potentially very strong El Niño is developing in the Pacific for late 2026. Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli recently highlighted the growing emergency: sustained marine heat stress has now reached 20+ weeks in the waters around the Galápagos Islands. NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch warns this level means “Near Complete Mortality” of shallow-water coral reefs.

The Galápagos Penguins — already listed as endangered with only a few thousand left — are facing a life-threatening event. These birds rely on the cold, nutrient-rich upwelling of the Cromwell Current to bring fish to the surface. When El Niño warms surface waters by +5–10°F, that upwelling shuts down like a lid on a pot. The entire food chain collapses: phytoplankton dies off, fish disappear, and predators starve.

This is not theory. The 1982–83 super El Niño killed 77% of the Galápagos penguin population. The 1997–98 event caused a similar ~65% crash. Scientists describe it as a cascade: primary productivity collapses, and the ecosystem sickens from the bottom up.

The Galápagos Islands are the living laboratory that helped inspire Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution — a place of unparalleled biodiversity found nowhere else on earth. Now that same unique ecosystem is under severe stress.

The Revelation Connection: Waters Turning to Blood and Fish Dying

This brings us to one of the most sobering prophecies in the Book of Revelation.

In the second trumpet judgment (Revelation 8:8-9):

“The second angel sounded his trumpet, and something like a huge mountain, all ablaze, was thrown into the sea. A third of the sea turned into blood, a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed.”

And again in the second bowl judgment (Revelation 16:3):

“The second angel poured out his bowl on the sea, and it turned into blood like that of a dead person, and every living thing in the sea died.”

Many readers have asked: Could the increasing intensity of El Niño events be connected to this prophecy?

Not a literal fulfillment yet — we have not seen one-third of the world’s oceans turn to literal blood. But we are watching a powerful shadow and precursor of exactly what John described.

During strong El Niño events, scientists have documented massive harmful algal blooms (red tides) that literally turn stretches of ocean reddish-brown and kill huge numbers of fish and marine life. The warm, stagnant waters create perfect conditions for these toxic blooms. The result? Dead fish washing ashore by the thousands, oxygen-depleted “dead zones,” and entire food webs collapsing — precisely the imagery of “the sea turned into blood” and “every living thing in the sea died.”

What we are seeing in the Galápagos right now is a localized but dramatic picture of that judgment: waters that can no longer sustain life, coral reefs dying en masse, and iconic species like the penguins facing starvation.

Why This Matters in the Sabbatical and Jubilee Cycles

As we have been teaching for years, the curses of Leviticus 26 and Deuteronomy 28 intensify as we approach the end of this age. Famine, pestilence, and destruction of the land and seas are part of the warning signs.

El Niño is a natural cycle — but its increasing frequency and severity on top of long-term warming are making each event more destructive. The very mechanisms God built into creation (upwelling, nutrient flows) are being disrupted on a scale that mirrors the judgments written 2,000 years ago.

This is not a coincidence. It is a sign.

The same waters that once teemed with life are now showing us what happens when the life-giving systems are shut off. Just as the Nile turned to blood in Egypt as a judgment, we are seeing pockets of the sea behave the same way today.

The prophecy is clear: one day a third of the sea will turn to blood, and the fish will die on a global scale. What we are seeing in the Galápagos is a warning shot — a small-scale rehearsal so that those with eyes to see will understand the times.

Oil Inventories Plunge Toward “Tank Bottoms” 

Europe in May, U.S. Around July 4

The global oil system is now reaching critical operational limits much faster than most analysts expected.

According to the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending May 1, 2026, commercial inventories are drawing down at an alarming pace. Crude oil inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels. Gasoline inventories dropped 2.5 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories (diesel, heating oil, and jet fuel) fell another 1.3 million barrels, reaching the lowest level since 2005 and sitting approximately 11% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, released May 6, 2026

→ https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

Jeff Currie, Senior Advisor at Carlyle Group and one of the most respected commodities analysts in the world, stated on Bloomberg Television on May 6, 2026:

“Europe is going to hit tank bottoms sometime in the month of May… The U.S. is going to hit tank bottoms around July 4th… I’ve never seen anything like it before.”

“Tank bottoms” (also called the operational floor or operational minimums) does not mean the tanks are completely empty. It refers to the point where the remaining usable oil is so low that sediment, water, and sludge at the bottom of the tanks make normal pumping and refining operations extremely difficult or impossible. At that stage, refineries are forced to reduce throughput, costs rise sharply, and supply disruptions become more likely.

Europe is expected to reach these tank bottoms first, sometime in May 2026. The United States is projected to follow closely behind, with tank bottoms likely appearing around July 4, 2026 — or possibly sooner if the current rate of draws continues.

What This Means for Food Prices This Fall in Europe and North America

Diesel is the lifeblood of modern food supply chains. It powers the vast majority of tractors, combines, trucks, trains, refrigerated transport, and much of the fertilizer and chemical logistics that keep food moving from farm to table. When distillate inventories hit these operational floors, diesel prices tend to spike dramatically, and those higher costs flow directly into the price of food.

Europe is expected to feel the pressure first and hardest, beginning as early as this month. North America will follow closely behind starting in July. Higher diesel costs will raise the expense of planting, harvesting, processing, and distributing food across both continents. Grocery prices, already elevated, are likely to rise further and become noticeably more expensive by late summer and into the fall and winter of 2026.

We have been warning about the coming famine since 2005, using the Sabbatical and Jubilee cycles as our guide. What we are seeing now matches exactly the pattern of curses that Yehovah warned Israel about in Leviticus 26:

Lev 26:18 And if you will not yet listen to Me for all this, then I will punish you seven times more for your sins.

Lev 26:19 And I will break the pride of your power, and I will make your heaven like iron and your earth like bronze.

Lev 26:20 And your strength shall be spent in vain. For your land shall not yield its increase, neither shall the trees of the field yield their fruits.

Lev 26:23  And if you will not be reformed by Me by these things, but will still walk contrary to Me,

Lev 26:24  then I will walk contrary to you and will punish you seven times more for your sins.

Lev 26:25  And I will bring a sword on you that shall execute the vengeance of the covenant. And when you are gathered inside your cities, I will send the plague among you. And you shall be delivered into the hand of the enemy.

Lev 26:26  When I have broken the staff of your bread, ten women shall bake your bread in one oven, and they shall deliver you your bread again by weight. And you shall eat and not be satisfied.

Lev 26:27  And if you will not for all of this listen to Me, but will walk contrary to Me,

Lev 26:28  then I will walk contrary to you also in fury. And I, even I, will chastise you seven times for your sins.

Lev 26:29  And you shall eat the flesh of your sons, and the flesh of your daughters you shall eat.

These verses describe a time when the land refuses to produce its full increase and food becomes so scarce that even basic baking requires extreme effort and rationing. We are now watching the very mechanisms that can produce this kind of famine being activated in real time: diesel shortages, disrupted global supply chains, and rising costs that will make food more expensive and harder to obtain this fall and winter in Europe and North America.

The systems we depend on for food and fuel are reaching their limits.

Sources (for easy verification):

• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (May 6, 2026) → https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
• Bloomberg Television interview with Jeff Currie (May 6, 2026)

Asian Rice Planting Collapsing

The Famine Warnings of Leviticus 26 Are Now Visible

A growing global food crisis is unfolding right now as the war in Iran disrupts fertilizer shipments and cripples rice production across Asia, threatening one of the world’s most essential food supplies.

Farmers across multiple major rice-producing nations are being forced to cut back on planting and reduce their expected harvests as soaring fuel and fertilizer costs spread through already fragile supply chains. Experts warn the shockwaves from these reductions could soon impact grocery prices and food availability worldwide.

The critical wet-season rice planting window for much of South and Southeast Asia runs from May to August. This is the period when farmers decide how much land to plant and how much fertilizer to apply. Multiple independent reports from the past few weeks confirm that many farmers are now scaling back or skipping planting altogether.

Reuters reported on April 30, 2026, that the rice supply is expected to fall as farmers across Asia cut planting acreage due to soaring fertilizer and fuel costs. Nikkei Asia on May 6, 2026, and the Washington Post on May 9, 2026, both confirmed that farmers in Thailand, Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Indonesia are leaving fields idle or deciding not to plant the next crop because production costs have become unprofitable.

From Reuters (April 30, 2026):

“Rice supply is expected to fall this year as farmers cut planting acreage across Asia because of fertiliser shortages and soaring fuel costs from the Iran war, with an emerging El Niño also set to squeeze output of the world’s most consumed staple,” Reuters reported. In Thailand’s Chai Nat province, 60-year-old farmer Sripai Kaew-Eam told Reuters that high fertiliser and fuel prices have pushed production costs to about 6,000 baht ($183.99) per rai (0.4 acre), up from 4,500–5,000 baht for the previous crop. Fertiliser prices have risen to 1,000–1,200 baht per bag from 850 baht, forcing her to cut her use by half.

Nikkei Asia reported on May 6, 2026 that rice farmers in India, Vietnam, and Thailand are bracing for a severe fertilizer shock as the growing season begins. The World Bank forecasts that overall fertilizer prices will rise 31% in 2026 compared with 2025, with urea — the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer — potentially climbing by as much as 60%. “Soaring fertilizer prices are looming over rice farmers in South and Southeast Asia as they prepare for the growing season, posing a risk to the food supply,” the article noted, highlighting how the Strait of Hormuz crisis is driving up the cost of essential inputs at the worst possible time.

The The Washington Post (May 9, 2026) that the Iran war is “crushing Asia’s farmers” and threatening global food supply. The article detailed how farmers across the region are making irreversible cuts as they enter key planting seasons, with the combined impact of higher diesel and fertilizer costs forcing many to leave fields idle or dramatically reduce inputs.

“Rising fuel and fertilizer costs led Saithong Jamjai to stop cultivating rice and shift to fruit crops on her farm in Nonthaburi, Thailand,”  Because of surging prices driven by the war, planting and harvesting will cost her at least $33,000, she said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/05/09/iran-farms-thailand-food/

Analysts estimate this could lead to a 10–15% reduction in rice output in the affected regions for the coming harvest, with the most significant effects being felt from October–November 2026 onward.

This is not speculation. It is happening in real time as farmers make their planting decisions during the key growing window.

We have been warning about the coming famine since 2005 using the Sabbatical and Jubilee cycles as our guide. What we are seeing now matches exactly the pattern of curses that Yehovah warned Israel about in Leviticus 26:

“I will break the pride of your power; and I will make your heaven as iron, and your earth as brass: And your strength shall be spent in vain: for your land shall not yield her increase, neither shall the trees of the land yield their fruits.” (Leviticus 26:19-20)

“When I have broken the staff of your bread, ten women shall bake your bread in one oven, and they shall deliver you your bread again by weight: and you shall eat, and not be satisfied.” (Leviticus 26:26)

These verses describe a time when the land refuses to produce its full increase and food becomes so scarce that even basic baking requires extreme effort and rationing.

The war in Iran has now triggered the very mechanisms that can produce this kind of famine: disrupted fertilizer shipments from the Persian Gulf, skyrocketing fuel prices, and farmers in Asia being forced to plant less rice. The systems we depend on for food are reaching their limits.

Sources:

• Reuters, April 30, 2026 – Rice supply expected to fall as farmers cut planting due to fertilizer and fuel costs.
• Nikkei Asia, May 6, 2026 – Reports on fertilizer shock and reduced planting in Thailand, Vietnam, and India.
• Washington Post, May 9, 2026 – Farmers in Asia scaling back rice planting due to surging costs.

Here is the full article from which we draw some of our abbreviated piece above.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/surplus-strain-world-rice-supply-threatened-by-iran-war-el-nino-2026-04-30/

From surplus to strain: world rice supply threatened by Iran war, El Nino

By Naveen Thukral and Panarat Thepgumpanat

April 30, 202610:51 AM EDTUpdated April 30, 2026

 

 

 

A worker cultivates rice plants at a farm in Bangkok, Thailand, August 28, 2018. Picture taken August 28, 2018. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

• Summary

• Higher fertiliser, fuel costs prompt rice farmers to cut inputs
• Growers in key producing countries cut rice planting
• Dryness due to El Nino weather to further strain grain supplies
• Situation getting “pretty serious” if fertiliser remains blocked

SINGAPORE/BANGKOK, April 30 (Reuters) – Rice supply is expected to fall this year as farmers cut planting acreage across Asia because of fertiliser shortages and soaring fuel costs ​from the Iran war, with an emerging El Nino also set to squeeze output of the world’s most consumed staple.

Rice is central to global food security, ‌and even modest supply disruptions can ripple through countries, lifting prices and straining household budgets, particularly among price-sensitive consumers in Asia and Africa. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization in April forecast rice output would expand by 2% to a record high in 2025/26.

The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here.

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The effects of the Iran war are impacting farmers in top exporters Thailand and Vietnam as well as the import-reliant Philippines and Indonesia, growers and traders said. The war has cut fuel and fertiliser ​flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint that connects the Gulf to global markets.

Southeast Asia’s mainly smallholder farmers also face mounting stress as the El Nino ​weather phenomenon is set to usher in hotter, drier conditions for the region in the second half of the year.

“Farmers have already started planting ⁠rice in some countries and are using fewer inputs because prices have gone up,” said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN FAO. “We are going to see a tighter global supply situation ​in the second half of the year and early next year.”

 

In 2008, export curbs by key suppliers more than doubled prices to about $1,000 a metric ton , triggering unrest in several countries. More recently, ​supply tightness in 2022 to 2023, exacerbated by India’s export restrictions, lifted prices and prompted panic buying.

SUPPLY-CHAIN DISRUPTION

Rice shipments are already facing supply-chain bottlenecks.

“Logistics have become a nightmare, especially in Asia as there is shortage of polypropylene bags, limited truck availability to move rice to ports and shipping itself has been disrupted,” said a Singapore-based trader at a top global rice merchant, who asked to remain unidentified as they are not authorized to speak ​to media.

While fertiliser shortages and dryness are already curbing yields of smaller crops being harvested in Southeast Asia, the next crop will likely face a bigger reduction.

 

India, Thailand and the Philippines plant ​their main crops in June and July, while Vietnam and Indonesia are now sowing their second-season crops.

Most Asian producers grow two or three rice crops a year.

FARMERS CUT PLANTING

Sripai Kaew-Eam, a 60-year-old farmer in Thailand’s ‌Chai Nat province ⁠about 151 km (94 miles) north of Bangkok, said high fertiliser and fuel prices have pushed production costs to about 6,000 baht ($183.99) per rai (0.4 acre), from around 4,500 to 5,000 baht for the previous crop, while the price she receives for the unhusked rice she harvests is about 6,200 baht per metric ton.

Fertiliser prices have risen to 1,000 to 1,200 baht per bag, from 850 baht, forcing her to cut her use by half.

“Fertiliser prices are high, fuel prices are high,” she said.

The Philippines, the world’s biggest rice importer, faces a similar situation.

 

“Some farmers are now saying they may ​not plant or will reduce fertiliser use, which ​would inevitably cut production,” said Arze Glipo, ⁠executive director of the Integrated Rural Development Foundation.

The country’s output could fall by as much as 6 million tons from its typical 19 million to 20 million.

“That would leave the Philippines in a precarious position, as imports are also uncertain due to export restrictions, making it extremely difficult to ​cover any production shortfall,” Glipo said.

 

In Indonesia, fertiliser supply is not a constraint but the El Nino is expected to curb output.

Indonesia’s statistics ​bureau estimates the rice harvest ⁠area in the March to May period will shrink by 10.6% to 3.85 million hectares (9.5 million acres), while unhusked rice production will drop 11.12% to 20.68 million tons.

Despite the supply worries, the world has ample rice inventories following years of bumper output, with India, the world’s biggest exporter, holding a record 42 million tons or about one-fifth of global stockpiles, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, cushioning ⁠any drop in ​global production.

Most rice grade prices are currently steady but will likely rise even if the Hormuz situation were resolved ​immediately, the FAO’s Torero said.

Opening the strait soon would avoid a major supply issue but “if we don’t reopen this in the next two to three weeks, the situation is going to get pretty serious,” he said.

($1 = 32.61 baht)

Reporting by Naveen ​Thukral in Singapore and Panarat Thepgumpanat in Bangkok; additional reporting by Karen Lema in Manila, Bernadette Christina in Jakarta, Khanh Vu in Hanoi and Mayank Bhardwaj in New Delhi; Editing by Christian Schmollinger

Winter Wheat Condition & Spring Wheat Planting Progress & Global Wheat Report (as of May 3, 2026)

Here is the most up-to-date information (as of May 10, 2026) on the U.S. drought situation, including winter wheat, spring wheat planting progress, and the global wheat market impact.

Winter Wheat Condition (as of May 3, 2026)

The winter wheat crop remains in very poor shape across the Southern and Central Plains.

• Good to Excellent: 31% (well below the 5-year average and sharply worse than last year).
• Poor to Very Poor: 37% (up significantly from last year).

The hardest-hit states are Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, and Nebraska, where drought coverage remains extreme.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress Report, released May 4, 2026 → https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795893/prog1826.pdf

Spring Wheat Planting Progress (as of May 3, 2026)

Spring wheat planting in the top six producing states is lagging behind normal:

• Planted: 32% (10 points behind last year’s 42% pace and 3 points behind the 5-year average of 35%).
• Emerged: 10% (slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 9%).

Washington is leading at 87% planted, while North Dakota is lagging at only 19% planted.

Source: Same USDA Crop Progress Report (May 4, 2026) above.

Global Wheat Market Impact

The severe U.S. drought is already pushing global wheat prices higher:

• Chicago wheat futures have gained nearly 30% since the start of 2026, reaching levels not seen in almost two years.
• Analysts estimate total U.S. wheat production for 2026 could be down ~15% from 2025 levels due to reduced planted acres, high abandonment rates in the Southern Plains, and lower yields.
• The U.S. is one of the world’s largest wheat exporters. Reduced U.S. output, combined with fertilizer shortages affecting Asian rice and other crops, is tightening global supplies and supporting higher prices worldwide.

Sources:

• The Wall Street Journal (April 30, 2026): “Wheat Prices Jump as Drought Threatens U.S. Output” → https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/wheat-prices-jump-as-drought-threatens-u-s-output-22a8479e
• The Guardian (May 8, 2026): “The worst time for wheat: US farmers face losses to heat and drought” → https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/08/wheat-farmers-face-loss-crops-heat-drought

Summary

The U.S. drought continues to severely damage the 2026 winter wheat crop, with spring wheat planting also running behind normal pace. This is contributing to a meaningful tightening of global wheat supplies and higher prices heading into the 2026/27 marketing year.

The situation remains fluid. The next USDA Crop Progress report (for the week ending May 10) will be released on Monday, May 11, 2026.

Current Global Surplus Food Stocks

There is a significant risk of food shortages and sharp price increases in 2026 and especially in 2027, driven by the combined pressures of the U.S. drought, reduced Asian rice planting, the Iran war’s impact on fuel and fertilizer costs, and a developing El Niño.

Current Global Surplus Stocks (Buffer to Absorb a Shock)

Global grain stocks are currently at record or near-record levels, providing a temporary cushion:

• Wheat: Global ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are forecast at 283.1 million tonnes (a 5-year high). This represents a comfortable stocks-to-use ratio of around 32–34%.
• Rice: Global ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 191–192 million tonnes (also near record highs), enough to cover about 4.7 months of world consumption.

Sources:

• USDA/IGC April–May 2026 reports
• FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (May 2026)

These stocks give the world some breathing room for one moderate shock. However, the current multi-front crisis (U.S. drought + Asian rice planting cuts + fertilizer/fuel cost spike + El Niño) is not a single shock — it is a compounding, multi-year disruption. Stocks can be drawn down quickly if production shortfalls persist into 2026/27.

Projected Shortfalls and Timeline for Shortages

• 2026 (current harvest year): Wheat production in key exporters (U.S., Russia, Canada, Australia) is already lower due to drought and reduced planting. Rice output in Asia will be noticeably reduced because of current planting cuts (May–August 2026 window). Prices will rise, and localized shortages will appear, especially in import-dependent regions. No global famine, but significant tightening.
• 2027: The full impact of lower 2026 planting + El Niño effects on the 2026/27 harvest will hit hardest. Global wheat and rice supplies are forecast to decline further. This is when widespread shortages, rationing in some countries, and major price spikes become most likely.

Analysts (IGC, FAO, USDA) project global wheat production to drop 2–5% in 2026/27 and rice output in Asia to fall 10–15% in key producing regions due to the fertilizer/fuel crisis. Combined with El Niño, this creates a multi-year supply squeeze.

Most Vulnerable Nations

The countries most at risk are those that are:

• Highly dependent on wheat and rice imports, and
• Already facing conflict, poverty, or climate stress.

Top vulnerable nations (2026–2027):

• Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia, Nigeria — heavy rice importers with large populations and limited domestic buffers.
• Egypt, Yemen, Sudan, Lebanon — major wheat importers already under strain.
• East Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia) and Sahel countries — compounded by drought and conflict.
• Pakistan and India (internal shortages possible if domestic production falls sharply).

The 2026 Global Report on Food Crises already projects 266–318 million people facing acute hunger in 2026, with risks rising sharply into 2027 if grain supplies tighten further.

Bottom line: We currently have enough stocks to absorb a single-year moderate shock, but not a sustained multi-year disruption across both wheat and rice. The 2026–2027 period is when the real pressure will build. Shortages will likely appear first as higher prices and empty shelves for staples, then as more severe access problems in vulnerable countries.

This situation aligns precisely with the warnings in Leviticus 26 about the land refusing to yield its increase when a nation turns away from God’s commandments.

Sources (all verified May 2026):

• USDA/IGC Grain Market Reports (April–May 2026)
• FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (May 2026)
• Reuters, Nikkei Asia, Washington Post reporting on Asian rice planting (April–May 2026)

• • Global Report on Food Crises 2026